Peter Anthonisz

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-08-29 05:11 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (6 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 16.7% trails market-implied 21.3% by -4.7pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -13.4% — a more honest expectation than the raw -16.7%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +11.9% (-28.6% → -16.7%) · Shrunk ROI: +1.5% (-14.9% → -13.4%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

16.7%

Avg Odds

5.30

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-1.00

ROI

-16.7%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-13.4%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

21.3%

Calibration Gap

-4.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-08	6	16.7%	5.30	$-1.00	-16.7%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
3.0-5.0	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
5.0-8.0	2	50.0%	+$3.00	+150.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 2	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	1	100.0%	+$4.00	+400.0%
Rank 6+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 6 of 6 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	50.0%	+$3.00	+150.0%
Outside Zone	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	6	16.7%	$-1.00	-16.7%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
caulfield	6	16.7%	$-1.00	-16.7%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Sat	6	16.7%	$-1.00	-16.7%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.84 (+84.0% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-07	caulfield	Davida	5.00	+$4.00

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-14	caulfield	Private Eye	3.50	$-1.00
2026-08-07	caulfield	Commit	4.40	$-1.00
2026-08-07	caulfield	Palm Angel	9.50	$-1.00
2026-08-14	caulfield	Silent Shares	6.00	$-1.00
2026-08-14	caulfield	Duchess Zou	3.40	$-1.00

Generated 2026-08-29 05:11 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.