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Matt McDermott
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-31 21:01 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (6 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 33.3% trails market-implied 43.9% by -10.6pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -14.8% — a more honest expectation than the raw -30.0%.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-1.80
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-14.8%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
43.9%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
(insufficient data)
Recent trend
(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 6 | 33.3% | 2.53 | $-1.80 | -30.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 2 | 50.0% | $-0.20 | -10.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 3 | 33.3% | $-0.60 | -20.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 6 | 33.3% | $-1.80 | -30.0% |
Based on 6 of 6 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 6 | 33.3% | $-1.80 | -30.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 6 | 33.3% | $-1.80 | -30.0% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| carnarvon | 6 | 33.3% | $-1.80 | -30.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Fri | 6 | 33.3% | $-1.80 | -30.0% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-31 | carnarvon | Tango Rhythm | 2.40 | +$1.40 |
| 2026-07-31 | carnarvon | Only Us | 1.80 | +$0.80 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-31 | carnarvon | Magic Carats | 2.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | carnarvon | Yes I Believe | 4.20 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | carnarvon | Devils I | 1.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | carnarvon | Mystery Minute | 2.80 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-31 21:01 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.