Andrew McCullough

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (13 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 15.4% trails market-implied 28.3% by -13.0pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -21.7% — a more honest expectation than the raw -55.0%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -9.2% (-45.8% → -55.0%) · Shrunk ROI: -0.7% (-20.9% → -21.7%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

15.4%

Avg Odds

11.04

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-7.15

ROI

-55.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-21.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

28.3%

Calibration Gap

-13.0pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	13	$-7.15	-55.0%
Minus best 1 bet	12	$-9.90	-82.5%
Minus best 2 bets	11	$-11.00	-100.0%
Minus best 5 bets	8	$-8.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	3	33.3%	4.25	+$0.75	+25.0%
2026-08	8	12.5%	3.46	$-5.90	-73.8%
2026-10	2	0.0%	51.58	$-2.00	-100.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
2.0-3.0	4	25.0%	$-1.90	-47.5%
3.0-5.0	6	16.7%	$-2.25	-37.5%
5.0-8.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Rank 2	7	14.3%	$-3.25	-46.4%
Rank 3	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	1	100.0%	+$1.10	+110.0%

Based on 13 of 13 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	10	20.0%	$-4.15	-41.5%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	12	16.7%	$-6.15	-51.3%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Sun	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-18		NZ Warriors 1 To 12	3.75	+$2.75
2026-08-29		South Sydney 13+	2.10	+$1.10

Biggest losses

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-14	Canterbury 1 To 12	2.90	$-1.00
2026-10-03	Newcastle Knights	3.15	$-1.00
2026-08-22	Newcastle 13+	2.36	$-1.00
2026-07-31	Melbourne 1 To 12	4.70	$-1.00
2026-08-28	Canterbury - Penrith	6.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.