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Andrew McCullough
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-28 18:16 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Small sample (2 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 50.0% beats market-implied 40.7% by +9.3pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -10.9% — a more honest expectation than the raw +41.0%.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$0.82
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-10.9%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
40.7%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
(insufficient data)
Recent trend
(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-06 | 2 | 50.0% | 2.50 | +$0.82 | +41.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2.0-3.0 | 2 | 50.0% | +$0.82 | +41.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 2 | 50.0% | +$0.82 | +41.0% |
Based on 2 of 2 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 2 | 50.0% | +$0.82 | +41.0% |
By source
(no source data)
By venue
(no venue data with sufficient samples)
By day of week
(no day-of-week data)
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-28 | | Canberra 1 To 12 | 2.82 | +$1.82 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-28 | | Newcastle 13+ | 2.18 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-06-28 18:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.