Stats Insider

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 35.3% vs implied 37.0% (-1.8pp). Picks track market expectations.

Bio & context

Commercial sports-analytics service producing model-driven racing tips. Subscription product — tips publicly distributed via Betfair Hub partnership. Australian-based.

AustraliaSports-analytics service / commercial tipping product

⚠ Conflict / insider flags

Tips are publicly distributed — signal is widely consumed, expect heavy market absorption before posting
Commercial incentive: needs visible volume to justify subscription, not the same incentive as a private punter

Methodology: Quantitative models scoring runners. Output is algorithmic — same methodology applied across all races, no per-race human override. High-volume by design.

Specialty: Australian thoroughbred racing — broad national coverage

Public footprint

statsinsider.com.au — subscription product
Betfair Hub — distribution partner
Social media presence across racing channels

Public track-record claims

Marketed as model-driven 'value' picks; public ROI claims not verified independently

Sources

Stats Insider website · Betfair Hub partner page

Source: manual · last researched 2026-05-30

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +11.4% (-22.5% → -11.1%) · Shrunk ROI: +9.9% (-21.4% → -11.5%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

190

Wins

Win Rate

35.3%

Avg Odds

22.46

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-21.16

ROI

-11.1%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-11.5%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

37.0%

Calibration Gap

-1.8pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	190	$-21.16	-11.1%
Minus best 1 bet	189	$-36.66	-19.4%
Minus best 2 bets	188	$-45.06	-24.0%
Minus best 5 bets	185	$-61.46	-33.2%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	101	36.6%	37.90	$-13.02	-12.9%
2026-07	89	33.7%	4.94	$-8.14	-9.1%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	66	59.1%	$-3.50	-5.3%
2.0-3.0	40	42.5%	+$1.24	+3.1%
3.0-5.0	30	23.3%	$-6.20	-20.7%
5.0-8.0	13	7.7%	$-6.80	-52.3%
8.0-15	22	9.1%	$-3.40	-15.5%
15+	17	5.9%	$-0.50	-2.9%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	66	53.0%	$-1.04	-1.6%
Rank 2	94	28.7%	$-2.59	-2.8%
Rank 3	29	17.2%	$-16.53	-57.0%

Based on 189 of 190 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	53	7.5%	$-11.70	-22.1%
Outside Zone	136	46.3%	$-8.46	-6.2%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	190	35.3%	$-21.16	-11.1%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-03	Draw or Away	16.50	+$15.50
2026-06-25	Yes	9.40	+$8.40
2026-07-03	The Draw	9.20	+$8.20
2026-06-25	South Africa	6.20	+$5.20
2026-07-06	Home or Away	4.00	+$3.00

Biggest losses

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-24	Draw or Away	9.40	$-1.00
2026-07-02	Yes	2.24	$-1.00
2026-06-24	Canada	3.40	$-1.00
2026-07-03	Yes	1.98	$-1.00
2026-06-27	Yes	2.40	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.