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Stats Insider
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-28 22:17 UTC
Verdict
BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 39.9% trails market-implied 45.0% by -5.2pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. 1167% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -14.4% on 151 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI -9.5%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+5.7%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -2.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw +1.3%.
Bio & context
Commercial sports-analytics service producing model-driven racing tips. Subscription product — tips publicly distributed via Betfair Hub partnership. Australian-based.
AustraliaSports-analytics service / commercial tipping product
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- Tips are publicly distributed — signal is widely consumed, expect heavy market absorption before posting
- Commercial incentive: needs visible volume to justify subscription, not the same incentive as a private punter
Methodology: Quantitative models scoring runners. Output is algorithmic — same methodology applied across all races, no per-race human override. High-volume by design.
Specialty: Australian thoroughbred racing — broad national coverage
Public footprint
- statsinsider.com.au — subscription product
- Betfair Hub — distribution partner
- Social media presence across racing channels
Public track-record claims
- Marketed as model-driven 'value' picks; public ROI claims not verified independently
Source: manual · last researched 2026-05-30
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +8.7% (-7.3% → +1.3%) · Shrunk ROI: +6.1% (-8.3% → -2.2%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$2.03
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-2.2%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
45.0%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 153 | +$2.03 | +1.3% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 152 | $-13.47 | -8.9% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 151 | $-21.67 | -14.4% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 148 | $-33.27 | -22.5% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-06 | 4 | 100.0% | 2.19 | +$4.77 | +119.3% |
| 2026-07 | 105 | 37.1% | 4.69 | +$1.46 | +1.4% |
| 2026-09 | 44 | 40.9% | 2.86 | $-4.20 | -9.5% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 70 | 48.6% | $-16.88 | -24.1% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 28 | 46.4% | +$3.46 | +12.4% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 26 | 42.3% | +$12.15 | +46.7% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 10 | 10.0% | $-3.40 | -34.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 13 | 7.7% | $-3.80 | -29.2% |
| 15+ | 6 | 16.7% | +$10.50 | +175.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 52 | 57.7% | +$3.20 | +6.2% |
| Rank 2 | 76 | 36.8% | +$16.31 | +21.5% |
| Rank 3 | 16 | 18.8% | $-8.48 | -53.0% |
Based on 153 of 153 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 29 | 10.3% | +$3.30 | +11.4% |
| Outside Zone | 124 | 46.8% | $-1.27 | -1.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| hub_playwright | 153 | 39.9% | +$2.03 | +1.3% |
By venue
(no venue data with sufficient samples)
By day of week
(no day-of-week data)
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-03 | | Draw or Away | 16.50 | +$15.50 |
| 2026-07-03 | | The Draw | 9.20 | +$8.20 |
| 2026-07-13 | | Yes | 6.60 | +$5.60 |
| 2026-07-06 | | Home or Away | 4.00 | +$3.00 |
| 2026-07-18 | | England | 4.00 | +$3.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-02 | | Yes | 2.24 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-03 | | Yes | 1.98 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-24 | | Under | 1.01 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-01 | | Yes | 1.99 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | | Under 2.5 Goals | 2.22 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-09-28 22:17 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.