Stats Insider

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (34 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 17.6% trails market-implied 54.6% by -36.9pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

17.6%

Avg Odds

6.20

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-26.02

ROI

-76.5%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

54.6%

Calibration Gap

-36.9pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	34	$-26.02	-76.5%
Minus best 1 bet	33	$-26.99	-81.8%
Minus best 2 bets	32	$-27.62	-86.3%
Minus best 5 bets	29	$-27.99	-96.5%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	34	17.6%	6.20	$-26.02	-76.5%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	18	33.3%	$-10.02	-55.7%
2.0-3.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
3.0-5.0	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
5.0-8.0	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
15+	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	34	17.6%	$-26.02	-76.5%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-03	Los Angeles Clippers	1.97	+$0.97
2026-03-04	Oklahoma City Thunder	1.63	+$0.63
2026-03-01	Boston Celtics	1.30	+$0.30
2026-03-04	New York Knicks	1.05	+$0.05
2026-03-01	Dallas Mavericks	1.02	+$0.02

Biggest losses

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-04	Sacramento Kings	4.20	$-1.00
2026-03-03	Utah Jazz	4.80	$-1.00
2026-03-03	Dallas Mavericks	6.80	$-1.00
2026-03-05	Utah Jazz	1.31	$-1.00
2026-03-03	Washington Wizards	10.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.