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Miles Pfitzner
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 23.8% trails market-implied 31.5% by -7.7pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -22.2%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-40.6%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -29.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw -33.2%.
Bio & context
Miles Pfitzner is a radio racing tipster and presenter at SEN (Sports Entertainment Network), particularly SENTrack and RSN. After spending 30 years in the racing and breeding industry, he joined SEN Track in 2020/2021 and became a permanent fixture in March 2021. He hosts multiple programs including "Fitzy's Form Lounge" on Saturdays and appears on RSN Saturday Raceday with on-course coverage from Melbourne tracks. He has a notable South Australian specialty, particularly Morphettville racing.
South AustraliaRadio racing presenter and tipster at SEN Track/RSN5 yrs
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- Has 30 years background in racing and breeding industry prior to media career - specific ownership/breeding interests not publicly disclosed but warrants monitoring
- Betfair-affiliated content (SA Betfair Edge show) - potential commercial bias toward exchange betting
- Tips published via TheGreatTipOff.com HOT Bet system where tipster earns money from followers' winning bets
Methodology: Form-based analysis with value focus; tips across multiple meetings nationally but shows particular strength in SA racing
Specialty: South Australia racing, particularly Morphettville; also covers metropolitan racing across all states
Public footprint
- SEN Track radio - hosts Fitzy's Form Lounge (Saturdays 9-11:30am)
- RSN - Melbourne Form Preview Hour (Saturdays 8-9am), on-course analyst for RSN Saturday Raceday
- SEN Track Trackside show (Wednesday/Thursday mornings)
- Instagram: @milespfitzner (9,785+ followers)
- Twitter: @PfitznerMiles
- Tips published on TheGreatTipOff.com (585+ followers)
- Also works on broader SEN network for AFL and sport calling
Industry connections
- Works alongside Cam Luke, Mick Gannon, David Gately, Mark Hunter on SEN/RSN programs
- Partnered with Clare Lindop and Adam Mintz on SA Betfair Edge show
- Sponsored by/affiliated with Betfair for tipping content
Public track-record claims
- Turned $300 into $4,255 (marketing claim on TheGreatTipOff.com, May 2026 - unverified)
- Described as having 'four month winning streak' in November 2021 article
- Dubbed part of 'A-Team' with David Taggart for backing 'winner after winner' (SEN marketing, 2021)
- Featured as one of Australia's best performing tipsters on TheGreatTipOff podcast (Episode 31)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-10
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -33.7% (+0.5% → -33.2%) · Shrunk ROI: -28.3% (-1.0% → -29.2%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-68.35
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-29.2%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
31.5%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 206 | $-68.35 | -33.2% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 205 | $-75.85 | -37.0% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 204 | $-83.35 | -40.9% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 201 | $-95.25 | -47.4% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 47 | 10.6% | 4.29 | $-34.10 | -72.6% |
| 2026-08 | 50 | 24.0% | 4.78 | $-15.75 | -31.5% |
| 2026-09 | 79 | 27.8% | 4.86 | $-18.80 | -23.8% |
| 2026-10 | 30 | 33.3% | 5.92 | +$0.30 | +1.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 18 | 61.1% | +$1.55 | +8.6% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 81 | 30.9% | $-21.90 | -27.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 51 | 17.6% | $-19.50 | -38.2% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 25 | 8.0% | $-14.50 | -58.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 21 | 9.5% | $-4.00 | -19.0% |
| 15+ | 10 | 0.0% | $-10.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 106 | 32.1% | $-29.00 | -27.4% |
| Rank 2 | 49 | 20.4% | $-13.25 | -27.0% |
| Rank 3 | 12 | 16.7% | $-1.50 | -12.5% |
| Rank 4-5 | 20 | 15.0% | $-5.60 | -28.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 19 | 0.0% | $-19.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 206 of 206 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 19 | 15.8% | +$0.00 | +0.0% |
| Outside Zone | 187 | 24.6% | $-68.35 | -36.6% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 206 | 23.8% | $-68.35 | -33.2% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| rosehill | 10 | 40.0% | +$5.75 | +57.5% |
| hawkesbury | 6 | 33.3% | +$0.15 | +2.5% |
| caulfield | 29 | 24.1% | $-0.10 | -0.3% |
| randwick | 7 | 42.9% | $-0.60 | -8.6% |
| wyong | 5 | 20.0% | $-2.60 | -52.0% |
| belmont | 20 | 40.0% | $-2.75 | -13.8% |
| northam | 6 | 16.7% | $-3.50 | -58.3% |
| darwin | 6 | 16.7% | $-3.90 | -65.0% |
Worst venues
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sandown | 14 | 21.4% | $-4.55 | -32.5% |
| flemington | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| sunshine coast | 8 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
| eagle farm | 8 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
| geelong | 12 | 16.7% | $-8.10 | -67.5% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 5 | 20.0% | $-2.90 | -58.0% |
| Wed | 27 | 33.3% | $-4.60 | -17.0% |
| Thu | 31 | 29.0% | $-5.00 | -16.1% |
| Fri | 16 | 25.0% | $-7.35 | -45.9% |
| Sat | 83 | 24.1% | $-18.80 | -22.7% |
| Sun | 44 | 13.6% | $-29.70 | -67.5% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 11 settled, place rate 45.5%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-4.43 (-40.3% ROI) on 11 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-29 | caulfield | Saint George | 8.50 | +$7.50 |
| 2026-10-09 | rosehill | Attrition | 8.50 | +$7.50 |
| 2026-09-18 | caulfield | Quick Finish | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
| 2026-09-18 | caulfield | Birdman | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-07-21 | sandown | Hi Val | 4.40 | +$3.40 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-12 | rosehill | Mukhtalif | 2.20 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | belmont | Sisu Spirit | 3.40 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | moree | Fabs Cuz | 3.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | mornington | Meh Keffi | 7.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-28 | sandown | Missapprehend | 2.40 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.