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Miles Pfitzner
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 28.6% vs implied 29.6% (-0.9pp). Picks track market expectations. 114% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -5.4% on 190 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI -11.6%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+78.0%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +27.4% — a more honest expectation than the raw +37.9%.
Bio & context
Miles Pfitzner is a radio racing tipster and presenter at SEN (Sports Entertainment Network), particularly SENTrack and RSN. After spending 30 years in the racing and breeding industry, he joined SEN Track in 2020/2021 and became a permanent fixture in March 2021. He hosts multiple programs including "Fitzy's Form Lounge" on Saturdays and appears on RSN Saturday Raceday with on-course coverage from Melbourne tracks. He has a notable South Australian specialty, particularly Morphettville racing.
South AustraliaRadio racing presenter and tipster at SEN Track/RSN5 yrs
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- Has 30 years background in racing and breeding industry prior to media career - specific ownership/breeding interests not publicly disclosed but warrants monitoring
- Betfair-affiliated content (SA Betfair Edge show) - potential commercial bias toward exchange betting
- Tips published via TheGreatTipOff.com HOT Bet system where tipster earns money from followers' winning bets
Methodology: Form-based analysis with value focus; tips across multiple meetings nationally but shows particular strength in SA racing
Specialty: South Australia racing, particularly Morphettville; also covers metropolitan racing across all states
Public footprint
- SEN Track radio - hosts Fitzy's Form Lounge (Saturdays 9-11:30am)
- RSN - Melbourne Form Preview Hour (Saturdays 8-9am), on-course analyst for RSN Saturday Raceday
- SEN Track Trackside show (Wednesday/Thursday mornings)
- Instagram: @milespfitzner (9,785+ followers)
- Twitter: @PfitznerMiles
- Tips published on TheGreatTipOff.com (585+ followers)
- Also works on broader SEN network for AFL and sport calling
Industry connections
- Works alongside Cam Luke, Mick Gannon, David Gately, Mark Hunter on SEN/RSN programs
- Partnered with Clare Lindop and Adam Mintz on SA Betfair Edge show
- Sponsored by/affiliated with Betfair for tipping content
Public track-record claims
- Turned $300 into $4,255 (marketing claim on TheGreatTipOff.com, May 2026 - unverified)
- Described as having 'four month winning streak' in November 2021 article
- Dubbed part of 'A-Team' with David Taggart for backing 'winner after winner' (SEN marketing, 2021)
- Featured as one of Australia's best performing tipsters on TheGreatTipOff podcast (Episode 31)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-10
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +19.5% (+18.4% → +37.9%) · Shrunk ROI: +13.8% (+13.6% → +27.4%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$72.76
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
+27.4%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
29.6%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 192 | +$72.76 | +37.9% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 191 | +$22.76 | +11.9% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 190 | $-10.24 | -5.4% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 187 | $-34.44 | -18.4% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 19 | 21.1% | 3.66 | $-8.35 | -43.9% |
| 2026-05 | 69 | 27.5% | 6.49 | +$84.61 | +122.6% |
| 2026-06 | 72 | 25.0% | 5.41 | $-13.00 | -18.1% |
| 2026-07 | 32 | 43.8% | 5.03 | +$9.50 | +29.7% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 16 | 37.5% | $-5.80 | -36.2% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 63 | 36.5% | $-6.80 | -10.8% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 56 | 30.4% | +$5.16 | +9.2% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 25 | 20.0% | +$7.20 | +28.8% |
| 8.0-15 | 19 | 10.5% | +$1.00 | +5.3% |
| 15+ | 13 | 15.4% | +$72.00 | +553.8% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 70 | 45.7% | +$15.01 | +21.4% |
| Rank 2 | 27 | 29.6% | +$8.66 | +32.1% |
| Rank 3 | 10 | 20.0% | +$1.00 | +10.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 15 | 13.3% | $-2.22 | -14.8% |
| Rank 6+ | 15 | 6.7% | $-5.00 | -33.3% |
Based on 137 of 192 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 14 | 28.6% | +$11.00 | +78.6% |
| Outside Zone | 123 | 33.3% | +$6.45 | +5.2% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 192 | 28.6% | +$72.76 | +37.9% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| doomben | 5 | 40.0% | +$49.10 | +982.0% |
| morphettville | 17 | 29.4% | +$27.34 | +160.8% |
| ballarat | 6 | 66.7% | +$7.35 | +122.5% |
| belmont | 20 | 40.0% | +$5.71 | +28.6% |
| caulfield | 6 | 33.3% | +$5.60 | +93.3% |
| sandown | 8 | 37.5% | +$5.40 | +67.5% |
| moe | 5 | 40.0% | +$1.00 | +20.0% |
| hobart | 6 | 33.3% | $-0.08 | -1.3% |
Worst venues
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sunshine coast | 9 | 33.3% | $-0.86 | -9.6% |
| murray bridge | 7 | 14.3% | $-1.00 | -14.3% |
| devonport | 6 | 16.7% | $-2.60 | -43.3% |
| northam | 7 | 14.3% | $-4.30 | -61.4% |
| flemington | 11 | 18.2% | $-5.30 | -48.2% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Wed | 21 | 33.3% | $-1.70 | -8.1% |
| Thu | 23 | 21.7% | $-9.00 | -39.1% |
| Fri | 17 | 52.9% | +$8.71 | +51.2% |
| Sat | 94 | 25.5% | +$76.90 | +81.8% |
| Sun | 37 | 27.0% | $-2.15 | -5.8% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 3 settled, place rate 66.7%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.17 (+5.7% ROI) on 3 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-15 | doomben | Rothfire | 51.00 | +$50.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | morphettville | Wigmore | 34.00 | +$33.00 |
| 2026-05-29 | caulfield | Jimmy The Bear | 14.00 | +$9.00 |
| 2026-05-22 | sandown | Milos Filos | 10.00 | +$9.00 |
| 2026-05-03 | dubbo | Wave Breaker | 6.50 | +$6.20 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-27 | eagle farm | Soft Love | 41.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | caulfield | Green Fly | 6.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | belmont | Olympic Park | 7.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-25 | northam | Peanut Butter | 2.70 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-22 | doomben | Vauban | 9.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.