Adam Williams

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (13 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 15.4% trails market-implied 26.1% by -10.7pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -38.7%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-100.0%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

15.4%

Avg Odds

5.30

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-8.10

ROI

-62.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

26.1%

Calibration Gap

-10.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	13	$-8.10	-62.3%
Minus best 1 bet	12	$-10.30	-85.8%
Minus best 2 bets	11	$-11.00	-100.0%
Minus best 5 bets	8	$-8.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-38.7%

Prior 60d ROI

-100.0%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	5	0.0%	4.84	$-5.00	-100.0%
2026-04	5	20.0%	4.86	$-3.30	-66.0%
2026-05	3	33.3%	6.80	+$0.20	+6.7%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	100.0%	+$0.70	+70.0%
2.0-3.0	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
3.0-5.0	4	25.0%	$-0.80	-20.0%
5.0-8.0	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	13	15.4%	$-8.10	-62.3%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
ipswich	5	20.0%	$-1.80	-36.0%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-03	ipswich	Yeah Copy	3.20	+$2.20
2026-04-11	rockhampton	Swift Dragon	1.70	+$0.70

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-16		Royal Detective	5.00	$-1.00
2026-03-26	toowoomba	Betterlucknexttime	12.00	$-1.00
2026-04-16	ipswich	Royal Detective	4.60	$-1.00
2026-05-02	devonport	Roundle Park	4.20	$-1.00
2026-03-25	ipswich	Cool Panels	2.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.