Adam Williams

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (6 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 33.3% beats market-implied 24.5% by +8.9pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +39.8% (-51.4% → -11.7%) · Shrunk ROI: +11.5% (-24.4% → -12.9%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

33.3%

Avg Odds

8.45

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-0.70

ROI

-11.7%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-12.9%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

24.5%

Calibration Gap

+8.9pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	4	25.0%	7.47	$-2.50	-62.5%
2026-08	2	50.0%	10.40	+$1.80	+90.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	100.0%	+$0.50	+50.0%
3.0-5.0	2	50.0%	+$1.80	+90.0%
5.0-8.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
15+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 2	3	33.3%	+$0.80	+26.7%
Rank 4-5	1	100.0%	+$0.50	+50.0%
Rank 6+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

Based on 6 of 6 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	5	40.0%	+$0.30	+6.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	6	33.3%	$-0.70	-11.7%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-28	cairns	Miss Moneypenny	3.80	+$2.80
2026-07-23	ipswich	Our Huntress	1.50	+$0.50

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-29	gatton	Lukey Blue	4.40	$-1.00
2026-07-23	ipswich	Eagle's Fire	5.00	$-1.00
2026-08-28	cairns	Geraldine's Wish	17.00	$-1.00
2026-07-30	gatton	Qickwit	19.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.