Adam Williams

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (8 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 12.5% trails market-implied 18.9% by -6.4pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -19.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw -60.0%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +17.7% (-77.7% → -60.0%) · Shrunk ROI: +13.3% (-32.8% → -19.5%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

12.5%

Avg Odds

8.39

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-4.80

ROI

-60.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-19.5%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

18.9%

Calibration Gap

-6.4pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	3	0.0%	5.37	$-3.00	-100.0%
2026-05	3	33.3%	6.80	+$0.20	+6.7%
2026-06	2	0.0%	15.30	$-2.00	-100.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
3.0-5.0	4	25.0%	$-0.80	-20.0%
5.0-8.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 2 of 8 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	8	12.5%	$-4.80	-60.0%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-03	ipswich	Yeah Copy	3.20	+$2.20

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-16		Royal Detective	5.00	$-1.00
2026-06-06	hobart	Miss Keeds	3.60	$-1.00
2026-04-16	ipswich	Royal Detective	4.60	$-1.00
2026-06-06	hobart	Outbush	27.00	$-1.00
2026-05-02	devonport	Roundle Park	4.20	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.