Cam Luke

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 19.0% trails market-implied 24.5% by -5.5pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

210

Wins

Win Rate

19.0%

Avg Odds

5.78

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-66.95

ROI

-31.9%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

24.5%

Calibration Gap

-5.5pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	210	$-66.95	-31.9%
Minus best 1 bet	209	$-74.95	-35.9%
Minus best 2 bets	208	$-82.95	-39.9%
Minus best 5 bets	205	$-98.95	-48.3%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-39.5%

Prior 60d ROI

-25.7%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	55	12.7%	6.22	$-27.20	-49.5%
2026-04	66	28.8%	5.16	$-3.00	-4.5%
2026-05	89	15.7%	5.97	$-36.75	-41.3%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	8	62.5%	+$0.60	+7.5%
2.0-3.0	43	39.5%	+$1.35	+3.1%
3.0-5.0	63	17.5%	$-20.90	-33.2%
5.0-8.0	58	8.6%	$-28.00	-48.3%
8.0-15	27	7.4%	$-9.00	-33.3%
15+	11	0.0%	$-11.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	9	33.3%	$-1.60	-17.8%
Rank 2	10	0.0%	$-10.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

Based on 33 of 210 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	9	0.0%	$-9.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	24	12.5%	$-16.60	-69.2%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	210	19.0%	$-66.95	-31.9%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
flemington	5	20.0%	+$4.00	+80.0%
morphettville	12	16.7%	+$4.00	+33.3%
randwick	11	27.3%	+$3.70	+33.6%
hawkesbury	8	25.0%	+$2.60	+32.5%
coffs harbour	6	16.7%	$-1.00	-16.7%
geelong	8	25.0%	$-1.40	-17.5%
sandown	5	20.0%	$-1.40	-28.0%
warwick farm	9	33.3%	$-1.40	-15.6%

Worst venues

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
gosford	12	33.3%	$-5.25	-43.8%
rosehill	10	10.0%	$-5.40	-54.0%
warrnambool	9	11.1%	$-5.50	-61.1%
caulfield heath	8	12.5%	$-5.70	-71.2%
caulfield	10	10.0%	$-6.00	-60.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	14	21.4%	$-0.90	-6.4%
Tue	21	4.8%	$-16.20	-77.1%
Wed	38	21.1%	$-18.25	-48.0%
Thu	31	25.8%	$-10.00	-32.3%
Fri	47	23.4%	$-11.85	-25.2%
Sat	59	15.3%	$-9.75	-16.5%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-16	flemington	Losesomewinmore	9.00	+$8.00
2026-04-25	morphettville	Panova	9.00	+$8.00
2026-03-09	morphettville	Bootlegger	7.00	+$6.00
2026-04-11	randwick	Idle Flyer	6.00	+$5.00
2026-04-18	randwick	Fireball	6.00	+$5.00

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-10	wellington	Will To Excel	3.60	$-2.00
2026-04-10	tamworth	Brighella	3.40	$-2.00
2026-03-21	caulfield	Philia	10.00	$-1.00
2026-05-16	doomben	Welwal	3.60	$-1.00
2026-04-30	wagga	Rue De Royale	3.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.