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Cam Luke
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 16.0% trails market-implied 21.7% by -5.6pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -51.6%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-12.0%) — trend is declining.
Bio & context
Cam Luke is a racing broadcaster and tipster employed by SEN (Sports Entertainment Network), where he has been an integral member of SEN Track since its launch in 2020. He hosts racing programs including "The Mounting Yard with Cam Luke" and provides daily tips across the SEN Track network (radio and podcast), with a broader sports media background including work for Channel 7, ESPN Australia, and the NBA. Based in Melbourne/Victoria, Luke positions himself as a punter who enjoys "a punt" and focuses on speed maps and form-based selections across all Australian racing jurisdictions.
Melbourne, VictoriaRadio broadcaster and racing tipster6 yrs
Methodology: Form-based analysis with emphasis on speed maps, race-by-race tactical assessment, and consideration of track conditions. Describes himself as a punter with knowledge and enjoyment of betting.
Specialty: National coverage - tips on metropolitan and provincial meetings across all Australian states, with Victorian focus
Public footprint
- SEN Track radio - hosts 'The Mounting Yard with Cam Luke' (Monday/Tuesday mornings from 2022)
- SEN Track podcast - daily racing tips segment with co-hosts including David Taggart, Campbell Brown, Miles Pfitzner, and Mick Gannon
- Instagram: @camjluke
- Twitter/X: @camluke
- TheGreatTipOff aggregator - tips published as 'Cameron Luke' from SEN | VIC
- Also works on Channel 7 AFL coverage and ESPN Australia (Armchair Experts podcast, NBL Overtime)
Industry connections
- David Taggart (regular co-host and fellow SEN Track tipster)
- Campbell Brown (regular co-host)
- Miles Pfitzner (co-host, 30 years in racing/breeding industry)
- Sam Hyland (former jockey, SEN Track contributor)
- Mick Gannon (SEN Track tipster)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-01
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +6.6% (-31.0% → -24.4%) · Shrunk ROI: +7.4% (-29.1% → -21.7%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-39.60
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-21.7%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
21.7%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 162 | $-39.60 | -24.4% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 161 | $-56.60 | -35.2% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 160 | $-63.10 | -39.4% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 157 | $-77.60 | -49.4% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 35 | 22.9% | 5.29 | $-6.00 | -17.1% |
| 2026-08 | 70 | 14.3% | 8.20 | $-13.00 | -18.6% |
| 2026-09 | 48 | 14.6% | 5.80 | $-18.10 | -37.7% |
| 2026-10 | 9 | 11.1% | 13.28 | $-2.50 | -27.8% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 19 | 26.3% | $-5.70 | -30.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 65 | 18.5% | $-19.90 | -30.6% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 41 | 19.5% | +$5.00 | +12.2% |
| 8.0-15 | 22 | 0.0% | $-22.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 14 | 7.1% | +$4.00 | +28.6% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 51 | 19.6% | $-19.20 | -37.6% |
| Rank 2 | 37 | 13.5% | $-19.00 | -51.4% |
| Rank 3 | 31 | 29.0% | +$16.10 | +51.9% |
| Rank 4-5 | 24 | 4.2% | $-16.50 | -68.8% |
| Rank 6+ | 19 | 5.3% | $-1.00 | -5.3% |
Based on 162 of 162 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 34 | 20.6% | +$4.50 | +13.2% |
| Outside Zone | 128 | 14.8% | $-44.10 | -34.5% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 162 | 16.0% | $-39.60 | -24.4% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| flemington | 13 | 23.1% | +$13.10 | +100.8% |
| warwick farm | 10 | 50.0% | +$9.70 | +97.0% |
| randwick | 13 | 23.1% | +$1.60 | +12.3% |
| bendigo | 5 | 20.0% | +$0.50 | +10.0% |
| geelong | 7 | 14.3% | $-3.40 | -48.6% |
| caulfield | 18 | 16.7% | $-4.10 | -22.8% |
| rosehill | 10 | 10.0% | $-4.50 | -45.0% |
| ballarat | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Wed | 59 | 18.6% | $-15.20 | -25.8% |
| Thu | 19 | 5.3% | $-14.00 | -73.7% |
| Fri | 32 | 12.5% | $-18.50 | -57.8% |
| Sat | 52 | 19.2% | +$8.10 | +15.6% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 7 settled, place rate 42.9%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.21 (-17.3% ROI) on 7 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-01 | flemington | Almontego | 18.00 | +$17.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | warwick farm | Flying From Above | 7.50 | +$6.50 |
| 2026-10-03 | randwick | Juja Kibo | 6.50 | +$5.50 |
| 2026-08-15 | caulfield | Hard Kick | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
| 2026-08-26 | bendigo | Invisible Magic | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-23 | wyong | Waerea | 3.40 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | flemington | Autumn Boy | 21.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-23 | wyong | Concrete Storm | 3.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | rosehill | Heroic Deed | 4.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-18 | ballarat | Al Duca | 3.20 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.