Chris Nelson

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 23.2% trails market-implied 28.2% by -5.0pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -46.5%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-4.5%) — trend is declining.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

276

Wins

Win Rate

23.2%

Avg Odds

4.92

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-50.25

ROI

-18.2%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

28.2%

Calibration Gap

-5.0pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	276	$-50.25	-18.2%
Minus best 1 bet	275	$-62.25	-22.6%
Minus best 2 bets	274	$-72.25	-26.4%
Minus best 5 bets	271	$-91.25	-33.7%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-46.5%

Prior 60d ROI

-4.5%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	100	28.0%	4.86	+$0.10	+0.1%
2026-04	86	22.1%	4.75	$-8.50	-9.9%
2026-05	90	18.9%	5.15	$-41.85	-46.5%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	22	40.9%	$-5.90	-26.8%
2.0-3.0	62	35.5%	$-7.80	-12.6%
3.0-5.0	100	27.0%	+$2.85	+2.8%
5.0-8.0	50	8.0%	$-21.40	-42.8%
8.0-15	34	5.9%	$-10.00	-29.4%
15+	8	0.0%	$-8.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	18	38.9%	+$1.05	+5.8%
Rank 2	14	7.1%	$-10.40	-74.3%
Rank 3	8	25.0%	+$0.10	+1.3%
Rank 4-5	10	0.0%	$-10.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%

Based on 54 of 276 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	48	20.8%	$-17.25	-35.9%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	240	24.6%	$-29.40	-12.3%
sen_tips	36	13.9%	$-20.85	-57.9%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
kilcoy	7	57.1%	+$13.35	+190.7%
aquis park gold coast	7	28.6%	+$3.80	+54.3%
rockhampton	7	28.6%	+$1.70	+24.3%
townsville	37	29.7%	+$1.55	+4.2%
aquis beaudesert	5	20.0%	$-1.40	-28.0%
doomben	62	27.4%	$-2.05	-3.3%
barcaldine	6	16.7%	$-2.10	-35.0%
toowoomba	7	14.3%	$-5.40	-77.1%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	8	0.0%	$-8.00	-100.0%
Tue	50	34.0%	+$18.30	+36.6%
Wed	79	24.1%	$-11.45	-14.5%
Thu	5	40.0%	$-0.40	-8.0%
Fri	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Sat	81	19.8%	$-29.30	-36.2%
Sun	52	19.2%	$-18.40	-35.4%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 8 settled, place rate 62.5%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.77 (+22.1% ROI) on 8 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-17	kilcoy	Michifuku	13.00	+$12.00
2026-04-21	townsville	Mister Doobee	11.00	+$10.00
2026-04-18	aquis park gold coast	Sea Warning	7.50	+$6.50
2026-04-19	sunshine coast	Forty Times	7.50	+$6.50
2026-03-25	eagle farm	Subterrain	7.00	+$6.00

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-19	sunshine coast	Amelioration	2.70	$-1.00
2026-04-08	eagle farm	Fasvara	4.20	$-1.00
2026-05-10	sunshine coast	Excenia	3.70	$-1.00
2026-03-07	eagle farm	Facundo	4.20	$-1.00
2026-05-10	sunshine coast	Dolly Boom	1.40	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.