Terry Leighton

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 17.6% trails market-implied 23.6% by -6.0pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -59.7%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+7.3%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -21.4% — a more honest expectation than the raw -27.1%.

Since last weekly snapshot: +2 new bets · ROI: -5.5% (-21.6% → -27.1%) · Shrunk ROI: -3.3% (-18.1% → -21.4%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

17.6%

Avg Odds

6.65

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-20.06

ROI

-27.1%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-21.4%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

23.6%

Calibration Gap

-6.0pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	74	$-20.06	-27.1%
Minus best 1 bet	73	$-31.06	-42.5%
Minus best 2 bets	72	$-40.06	-55.6%
Minus best 5 bets	69	$-49.06	-71.1%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-59.7%

Prior 60d ROI

+7.3%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	12	8.3%	7.78	$-9.02	-75.2%
2026-08	24	29.2%	6.19	+$11.66	+48.6%
2026-09	30	16.7%	6.31	$-14.70	-49.0%
2026-10	8	0.0%	7.62	$-8.00	-100.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	3	33.3%	$-1.28	-42.7%
2.0-3.0	14	50.0%	+$4.22	+30.1%
3.0-5.0	27	11.1%	$-15.00	-55.6%
5.0-8.0	11	0.0%	$-11.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	12	16.7%	+$10.00	+83.3%
15+	7	0.0%	$-7.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	25	28.0%	$-6.76	-27.0%
Rank 2	14	21.4%	$-2.70	-19.3%
Rank 3	10	0.0%	$-10.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	11	9.1%	$-1.00	-9.1%
Rank 6+	9	11.1%	$-6.60	-73.3%

Based on 69 of 74 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	11	0.0%	$-11.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	58	20.7%	$-16.06	-27.7%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	66	18.2%	$-14.96	-22.7%
sen_tips	8	12.5%	$-5.10	-63.7%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
kalgoorlie	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
belmont	54	16.7%	$-20.38	-37.7%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Sat	8	12.5%	$-5.10	-63.7%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 28 settled, place rate 50.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.23 (-0.8% ROI) on 28 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-01		6. Belle Journee	12.00	+$11.00
2026-08-08	belmont	6. Spinarella	10.00	+$9.00
2026-08-29	belmont	6. Olaf The Snowman	4.60	+$3.60
2026-09-26		3. Streak Of God	3.80	+$2.80
2026-09-12	belmont	7. Hurricane Harley	3.60	+$2.60

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-19	belmont	4. Niccimota	4.00	$-1.00
2026-08-15		1. Decision Maker	7.60	$-1.00
2026-09-19	belmont	Double The Fun	4.60	$-1.00
2026-09-19	belmont	12. Pistone	3.35	$-1.00
2026-09-19	belmont	Niccimota	3.60	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.