Terry Leighton

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (12 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 8.3% trails market-implied 18.8% by -10.5pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -25.8% — a more honest expectation than the raw -79.0%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -25.8% (-53.2% → -79.0%) · Shrunk ROI: +3.8% (-29.5% → -25.8%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

8.3%

Avg Odds

7.82

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-9.48

ROI

-79.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-25.8%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

18.8%

Calibration Gap

-10.5pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	12	$-9.48	-79.0%
Minus best 1 bet	11	$-11.00	-100.0%
Minus best 2 bets	10	$-10.00	-100.0%
Minus best 5 bets	7	$-7.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	6	16.7%	5.38	$-3.48	-58.0%
2026-07	6	0.0%	10.27	$-6.00	-100.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
2.0-3.0	2	50.0%	+$0.52	+26.0%
3.0-5.0	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
5.0-8.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	3	33.3%	$-0.48	-16.0%
Rank 2	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

Based on 9 of 12 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	8	12.5%	$-5.48	-68.5%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	12	8.3%	$-9.48	-79.0%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
belmont	8	12.5%	$-5.48	-68.5%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 3 settled, place rate 66.7%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.15 (+5.0% ROI) on 3 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-27	belmont	7. Correct Choice	2.52	+$1.52

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-27		3. Battle Commander	7.00	$-1.00
2026-07-11	belmont	10. Deep Lyric	3.40	$-1.00
2026-06-27		9. Eliteone	11.50	$-1.00
2026-06-27		7. Yorga Pride	4.50	$-1.00
2026-07-11	belmont	5. Catch The Red Eye	15.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.