Tony Hargraves

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (56 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 53.6% beats market-implied 46.8% by +6.7pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 82% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of +2.2% on 54 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +0.1% — a more honest expectation than the raw +11.8%.

Since last weekly snapshot: +19 new bets · ROI: +1.1% (+10.7% → +11.8%) · Shrunk ROI: +3.0% (-2.9% → +0.1%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

53.6%

Avg Odds

2.27

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$6.61

ROI

+11.8%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

+0.1%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

46.8%

Calibration Gap

+6.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	56	+$6.61	+11.8%
Minus best 1 bet	55	+$3.81	+6.9%
Minus best 2 bets	54	+$1.21	+2.2%
Minus best 5 bets	51	$-3.91	-7.7%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-08	33	54.5%	2.29	+$3.72	+11.3%
2026-09	23	52.2%	2.24	+$2.89	+12.6%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	25	48.0%	$-1.45	-5.8%
2.0-3.0	24	62.5%	+$6.22	+25.9%
3.0-5.0	7	42.9%	+$1.84	+26.3%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	39	48.7%	$-0.27	-0.7%
Rank 2	12	75.0%	+$4.48	+37.3%
Rank 3	5	40.0%	+$2.40	+48.0%

Based on 56 of 56 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	56	53.6%	+$6.61	+11.8%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	37	51.4%	+$3.96	+10.7%
payload	19	57.9%	+$2.65	+13.9%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Fri	1	100.0%	+$0.62	+62.0%
Sat	10	70.0%	+$3.97	+39.7%
Sun	6	50.0%	+$0.06	+1.0%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-05	The Draw	3.80	+$2.80
2026-09-05	The Draw	3.60	+$2.60
2026-08-29	Liverpool	1.50	+$2.00
2026-08-28	Sunderland	2.58	+$1.58
2026-08-29	Sunderland	2.54	+$1.54

Biggest losses

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-04	Over 3.5 Goals	2.14	$-1.00
2026-09-05	Brighton	2.00	$-1.00
2026-09-19	Man Utd	2.10	$-1.00
2026-08-29	Coventry	1.85	$-1.00
2026-09-18	Liverpool	2.30	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.