Tony Hargraves

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (9 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 11.1% trails market-implied 47.8% by -36.6pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

11.1%

Avg Odds

2.17

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-7.19

ROI

-79.9%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

47.8%

Calibration Gap

-36.6pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	9	11.1%	2.17	$-7.19	-79.9%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	4	25.0%	$-2.19	-54.8%
2.0-3.0	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	9	11.1%	$-7.19	-79.9%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-03		Yes	1.81	+$0.81

Biggest losses

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-03	Over 2.5 Goals	1.75	$-1.00
2026-03-03	Leeds	1.94	$-1.00
2026-03-03	Arsenal	1.72	$-1.00
2026-03-03	No	2.04	$-1.00
2026-03-03	Brentford	2.80	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.