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Nick Noonan
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 28.2% vs implied 27.8% (+0.5pp). Picks track market expectations. 142% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -3.7% on 214 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI +23.7%) is materially better than the prior 60d (+1.2%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$19.07
Implied Win % (1/odds)
27.8%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 216 | +$19.07 | +8.8% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 215 | +$4.07 | +1.9% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 214 | $-7.93 | -3.7% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 211 | $-32.33 | -15.3% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 69 | 30.4% | 5.95 | +$12.97 | +18.8% |
| 2026-04 | 74 | 27.0% | 5.43 | $-11.20 | -15.1% |
| 2026-05 | 73 | 27.4% | 6.16 | +$17.30 | +23.7% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 20 | 65.0% | +$4.24 | +21.2% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 47 | 36.2% | $-7.04 | -15.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 77 | 26.0% | +$1.87 | +2.4% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 29 | 20.7% | +$8.00 | +27.6% |
| 8.0-15 | 22 | 18.2% | +$17.00 | +77.3% |
| 15+ | 21 | 4.8% | $-5.00 | -23.8% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 14 | 50.0% | +$12.85 | +91.8% |
| Rank 2 | 5 | 20.0% | +$0.00 | +0.0% |
| Rank 3 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 4 | 25.0% | +$5.50 | +137.5% |
| Rank 6+ | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 30 of 216 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 5 | 40.0% | +$5.00 | +100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 25 | 28.0% | +$6.35 | +25.4% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 145 | 29.0% | $-12.03 | -8.3% |
| sen_tips | 70 | 27.1% | +$32.10 | +45.9% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| flemington | 7 | 28.6% | +$12.40 | +177.1% |
| mornington | 11 | 36.4% | +$9.30 | +84.5% |
| ballarat | 6 | 33.3% | +$7.00 | +116.7% |
| ararat | 10 | 40.0% | +$3.92 | +39.2% |
| hobart | 31 | 29.0% | +$2.91 | +9.4% |
| warrnambool | 7 | 42.9% | +$1.50 | +21.4% |
| sale | 5 | 20.0% | $-0.20 | -4.0% |
| seymour | 5 | 40.0% | $-0.50 | -10.0% |
Worst venues
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| bet365 seymour | 13 | 23.1% | $-1.87 | -14.4% |
| picklebet park werribee | 8 | 25.0% | $-2.80 | -35.0% |
| launceston | 51 | 29.4% | $-7.29 | -14.3% |
| caulfield | 11 | 0.0% | $-11.00 | -100.0% |
| horsham | 10 | 10.0% | $-12.05 | -120.5% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 38 | 26.3% | $-5.20 | -13.7% |
| Wed | 8 | 50.0% | +$0.96 | +12.0% |
| Thu | 20 | 30.0% | $-3.50 | -17.5% |
| Fri | 43 | 25.6% | $-8.25 | -19.2% |
| Sat | 36 | 19.4% | +$14.80 | +41.1% |
| Sun | 70 | 32.9% | +$21.26 | +30.4% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 3 settled, place rate 100.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$2.19 (+73.0% ROI) on 3 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-27 | flemington | Corniche | 16.00 | +$15.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | bendigo | Navy Pilot | 13.00 | +$12.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | ballarat | Pico Bella | 9.50 | +$8.50 |
| 2026-05-25 | mornington | Up And Under | 3.50 | +$8.40 |
| 2026-03-15 | swan hill | Second Fix | 8.50 | +$7.50 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-27 | horsham | Platino | 2.80 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-27 | horsham | Early Warning | 3.40 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-25 | mornington | Neotropical | 2.45 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-27 | horsham | Runaway Love | 3.50 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-03-30 | ararat | Flashlight | 4.80 | $-2.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.