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Nick Noonan
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 24.0% vs implied 25.8% (-1.7pp). Picks track market expectations.
Bio & context
Nick Noonan is a mounting yard analyst and form expert working with RSN Racing, Racing.com, Racing Tasmania, and Betfair. Born into racing (father David Noonan was a stud manager and trainer), he specializes in combining mounting yard assessment with data-driven form analysis and market movements (particularly BSP analysis). He co-hosts "The Racing Show" podcast with brother Travis Noonan (race caller/form analyst) and provides tips and mounting yard insights for subscribers on Wednesdays and Saturdays.
Victoria, AustraliaMounting yard analyst and form expert5 yrs
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- Family has owned racehorses together - monitor for any current ownership that could bias selections
- Father David Noonan is a former trainer - verify if still active or has ongoing connections
Methodology: Combines mounting yard assessment with form analysis and data. Focuses on finding value by analyzing BSP (Betfair Starting Price) movements, late market money, and identifying over/under-rated horses. Uses both visual horse presentation (learned from father) and punting form data, watching replays to confirm ratings. Generally anti-favourite, seeking value in longer-priced runners. Uses the Exchange to lay horses that present poorly in the yard.
Specialty: Victorian racing (particularly Melbourne metro meetings), Tasmanian form analysis. Mounting yard assessment is his signature specialty.
Public footprint
- Twitter/X: @NickoNoonan
- Co-hosts 'The Racing Show' podcast with brother Travis Noonan
- RSN Racing radio - mounting yard analysis and Saturday show 'The First Word' (6-8am)
- Racing.com - Tasmanian form coverage
- Racing Tasmania contributor
- Betfair Hub tipster (joined August 2025)
- Provides mounting yard analysis to subscribers on Wednesdays and Saturdays
Horse ownership / breeding
- Has owned horses with family in family colors - exact current holdings not publicly specified
Industry connections
- Brother Travis Noonan (race caller, form analyst, RSN)
- Father David Noonan (former stud manager and trainer)
- Mother worked at Greg Eurell and Pat Hyland stables
Public track-record claims
- TheGreatTipOff platform shows recent results but no major long-term track record claims made publicly
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-10
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -0.7% (-1.2% → -1.9%) · Shrunk ROI: -1.2% (-2.6% → -3.9%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-4.25
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-3.9%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
25.8%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 229 | $-4.25 | -1.9% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 228 | $-16.25 | -7.1% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 227 | $-25.25 | -11.1% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 224 | $-51.75 | -23.1% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 31 | 22.6% | 4.25 | $-10.70 | -34.5% |
| 2026-05 | 81 | 28.4% | 5.97 | +$16.25 | +20.1% |
| 2026-06 | 82 | 19.5% | 7.54 | $-5.90 | -7.2% |
| 2026-07 | 35 | 25.7% | 6.33 | $-3.90 | -11.1% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 13 | 53.8% | $-1.35 | -10.4% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 51 | 33.3% | $-12.45 | -24.4% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 74 | 23.0% | $-6.95 | -9.4% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 41 | 22.0% | +$14.00 | +34.1% |
| 8.0-15 | 31 | 16.1% | +$21.50 | +69.4% |
| 15+ | 19 | 0.0% | $-19.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 62 | 37.1% | +$8.20 | +13.2% |
| Rank 2 | 23 | 17.4% | $-7.60 | -33.0% |
| Rank 3 | 20 | 20.0% | +$0.90 | +4.5% |
| Rank 4-5 | 24 | 20.8% | +$15.00 | +62.5% |
| Rank 6+ | 25 | 4.0% | $-15.00 | -60.0% |
Based on 154 of 229 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 23 | 17.4% | $-1.00 | -4.3% |
| Outside Zone | 131 | 25.2% | +$2.50 | +1.9% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 140 | 24.3% | $-15.55 | -11.1% |
| sen_tips | 82 | 24.4% | +$14.60 | +17.8% |
| hub_playwright | 7 | 14.3% | $-3.30 | -47.1% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| mornington | 21 | 38.1% | +$20.40 | +97.1% |
| bendigo | 6 | 33.3% | +$10.00 | +166.7% |
| ballarat | 6 | 33.3% | +$7.00 | +116.7% |
| devonport tapeta synthetic | 42 | 33.3% | +$4.30 | +10.2% |
| southside pakenham synthetic | 8 | 25.0% | $-0.40 | -5.0% |
| eagle farm | 7 | 14.3% | $-2.00 | -28.6% |
| bet365 seymour | 5 | 20.0% | $-2.20 | -44.0% |
| flemington | 12 | 16.7% | $-2.60 | -21.7% |
Worst venues
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| launceston | 7 | 14.3% | $-3.60 | -51.4% |
| bet365 park kilmore | 8 | 12.5% | $-4.70 | -58.8% |
| sale | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| hobart | 42 | 19.0% | $-10.00 | -23.8% |
| horsham | 10 | 10.0% | $-12.05 | -120.5% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 46 | 23.9% | $-2.95 | -6.4% |
| Thu | 13 | 23.1% | $-5.00 | -38.5% |
| Fri | 7 | 14.3% | $-3.60 | -51.4% |
| Sat | 50 | 18.0% | $-0.90 | -1.8% |
| Sun | 106 | 28.3% | +$11.50 | +10.8% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 17 settled, place rate 64.7%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$6.69 (+39.3% ROI) on 17 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-01 | bendigo | Navy Pilot | 13.00 | +$12.00 |
| 2026-06-08 | mornington | Savour The Dream | 10.00 | +$9.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | devonport tapeta syntheti | Captain Cam | 10.00 | +$9.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | wangaratta | Tel Aviv | 10.00 | +$9.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | ballarat | Pico Bella | 9.50 | +$8.50 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-27 | horsham | Platino | 2.80 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-27 | horsham | Early Warning | 3.40 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-25 | mornington | Neotropical | 2.45 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-27 | horsham | Runaway Love | 3.50 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-31 | devonport tapeta syntheti | Simply Deep | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.