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Nick Noonan
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-03 05:21 UTC
Verdict
BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 22.5% trails market-implied 27.3% by -4.8pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -26.4%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+13.8%) — trend is declining.
Bio & context
Nick Noonan is a mounting yard analyst and form expert working with RSN Racing, Racing.com, Racing Tasmania, and Betfair. Born into racing (father David Noonan was a stud manager and trainer), he specializes in combining mounting yard assessment with data-driven form analysis and market movements (particularly BSP analysis). He co-hosts "The Racing Show" podcast with brother Travis Noonan (race caller/form analyst) and provides tips and mounting yard insights for subscribers on Wednesdays and Saturdays.
Victoria, AustraliaMounting yard analyst and form expert5 yrs
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- Family has owned racehorses together - monitor for any current ownership that could bias selections
- Father David Noonan is a former trainer - verify if still active or has ongoing connections
Methodology: Combines mounting yard assessment with form analysis and data. Focuses on finding value by analyzing BSP (Betfair Starting Price) movements, late market money, and identifying over/under-rated horses. Uses both visual horse presentation (learned from father) and punting form data, watching replays to confirm ratings. Generally anti-favourite, seeking value in longer-priced runners. Uses the Exchange to lay horses that present poorly in the yard.
Specialty: Victorian racing (particularly Melbourne metro meetings), Tasmanian form analysis. Mounting yard assessment is his signature specialty.
Public footprint
- Twitter/X: @NickoNoonan
- Co-hosts 'The Racing Show' podcast with brother Travis Noonan
- RSN Racing radio - mounting yard analysis and Saturday show 'The First Word' (6-8am)
- Racing.com - Tasmanian form coverage
- Racing Tasmania contributor
- Betfair Hub tipster (joined August 2025)
- Provides mounting yard analysis to subscribers on Wednesdays and Saturdays
Horse ownership / breeding
- Has owned horses with family in family colors - exact current holdings not publicly specified
Industry connections
- Brother Travis Noonan (race caller, form analyst, RSN)
- Father David Noonan (former stud manager and trainer)
- Mother worked at Greg Eurell and Pat Hyland stables
Public track-record claims
- TheGreatTipOff platform shows recent results but no major long-term track record claims made publicly
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-10
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -2.8% (+2.7% → -0.0%) · Shrunk ROI: -3.3% (+1.2% → -2.1%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-0.03
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-2.1%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
27.3%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 262 | $-0.03 | -0.0% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 261 | $-26.03 | -10.0% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 260 | $-42.53 | -16.4% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 257 | $-71.53 | -27.8% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-06 | 72 | 20.8% | 7.24 | +$0.80 | +1.1% |
| 2026-07 | 82 | 25.6% | 6.73 | +$23.80 | +29.0% |
| 2026-08 | 100 | 17.0% | 5.77 | $-30.85 | -30.9% |
| 2026-09 | 8 | 75.0% | 3.74 | +$6.22 | +77.8% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 28 | 32.1% | $-14.21 | -50.7% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 58 | 32.8% | $-12.22 | -21.1% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 69 | 27.5% | +$8.40 | +12.2% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 44 | 11.4% | $-15.50 | -35.2% |
| 8.0-15 | 43 | 11.6% | +$9.00 | +20.9% |
| 15+ | 20 | 10.0% | +$24.50 | +122.5% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 104 | 29.8% | $-30.01 | -28.9% |
| Rank 2 | 43 | 25.6% | +$2.15 | +5.0% |
| Rank 3 | 33 | 15.2% | $-6.60 | -20.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 40 | 12.5% | $-0.50 | -1.2% |
| Rank 6+ | 34 | 11.8% | +$32.50 | +95.6% |
Based on 254 of 262 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 37 | 10.8% | $-14.50 | -39.2% |
| Outside Zone | 217 | 24.0% | +$12.04 | +5.5% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 150 | 23.3% | $-33.41 | -22.3% |
| sen_tips | 77 | 18.2% | $-10.80 | -14.0% |
| hub_playwright | 35 | 28.6% | +$44.18 | +126.2% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| flemington | 18 | 33.3% | +$50.45 | +280.3% |
| wangaratta | 5 | 60.0% | +$19.90 | +398.0% |
| mornington | 10 | 40.0% | +$11.10 | +111.0% |
| devonport tapeta synthetic | 44 | 34.1% | +$0.59 | +1.3% |
| caulfield | 26 | 23.1% | $-2.10 | -8.1% |
| bet365 mildura | 6 | 16.7% | $-2.10 | -35.0% |
| picklebet park wodonga | 8 | 12.5% | $-3.40 | -42.5% |
| sandown | 9 | 11.1% | $-6.80 | -75.6% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 75 | 21.3% | $-20.40 | -27.2% |
| Wed | 32 | 31.2% | $-5.51 | -17.2% |
| Fri | 6 | 16.7% | $-2.10 | -35.0% |
| Sat | 37 | 16.2% | $-11.20 | -30.3% |
| Sun | 77 | 20.8% | $-5.00 | -6.5% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 30 settled, place rate 50.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$5.59 (+18.6% ROI) on 30 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-18 | flemington | 11. Salizou | 27.00 | +$26.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | flemington | 7. Almontego | 17.50 | +$16.50 |
| 2026-08-23 | wangaratta | Sheer Lunacy | 12.00 | +$11.00 |
| 2026-06-08 | mornington | Savour The Dream | 10.00 | +$9.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | flemington | 8. Stage N Screen | 10.00 | +$9.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-24 | southside pakenham synthe | Nothingelsematters | 6.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-19 | hobart | Sir Jag | 7.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | hobart | Authorised Access | 6.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-08 | mornington | Blue Shield | 3.20 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-03 | flemington | Pressurised | 41.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-09-03 05:21 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.