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Nick Noonan
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-18 22:27 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 21.8% trails market-implied 28.2% by -6.4pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.
Bio & context
Nick Noonan is a mounting yard analyst and form expert working with RSN Racing, Racing.com, Racing Tasmania, and Betfair. Born into racing (father David Noonan was a stud manager and trainer), he specializes in combining mounting yard assessment with data-driven form analysis and market movements (particularly BSP analysis). He co-hosts "The Racing Show" podcast with brother Travis Noonan (race caller/form analyst) and provides tips and mounting yard insights for subscribers on Wednesdays and Saturdays.
Victoria, AustraliaMounting yard analyst and form expert5 yrs
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- Family has owned racehorses together - monitor for any current ownership that could bias selections
- Father David Noonan is a former trainer - verify if still active or has ongoing connections
Methodology: Combines mounting yard assessment with form analysis and data. Focuses on finding value by analyzing BSP (Betfair Starting Price) movements, late market money, and identifying over/under-rated horses. Uses both visual horse presentation (learned from father) and punting form data, watching replays to confirm ratings. Generally anti-favourite, seeking value in longer-priced runners. Uses the Exchange to lay horses that present poorly in the yard.
Specialty: Victorian racing (particularly Melbourne metro meetings), Tasmanian form analysis. Mounting yard assessment is his signature specialty.
Public footprint
- Twitter/X: @NickoNoonan
- Co-hosts 'The Racing Show' podcast with brother Travis Noonan
- RSN Racing radio - mounting yard analysis and Saturday show 'The First Word' (6-8am)
- Racing.com - Tasmanian form coverage
- Racing Tasmania contributor
- Betfair Hub tipster (joined August 2025)
- Provides mounting yard analysis to subscribers on Wednesdays and Saturdays
Horse ownership / breeding
- Has owned horses with family in family colors - exact current holdings not publicly specified
Industry connections
- Brother Travis Noonan (race caller, form analyst, RSN)
- Father David Noonan (former stud manager and trainer)
- Mother worked at Greg Eurell and Pat Hyland stables
Public track-record claims
- TheGreatTipOff platform shows recent results but no major long-term track record claims made publicly
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-10
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -18.1% (-2.3% → -20.4%) · Shrunk ROI: -16.0% (-3.2% → -19.2%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-52.48
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-19.2%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
28.2%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 257 | $-52.48 | -20.4% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 256 | $-68.98 | -26.9% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 255 | $-79.98 | -31.4% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 252 | $-106.48 | -42.3% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 19 | 31.6% | 8.90 | +$10.85 | +57.1% |
| 2026-08 | 100 | 17.0% | 5.77 | $-30.85 | -30.9% |
| 2026-09 | 56 | 26.8% | 6.90 | $-14.33 | -25.6% |
| 2026-10 | 82 | 22.0% | 6.08 | $-18.15 | -22.1% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 27 | 40.7% | $-9.26 | -34.3% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 61 | 32.8% | $-14.07 | -23.1% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 71 | 25.4% | $-0.65 | -0.9% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 38 | 5.3% | $-27.50 | -72.4% |
| 8.0-15 | 33 | 12.1% | +$8.50 | +25.8% |
| 15+ | 27 | 3.7% | $-9.50 | -35.2% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 103 | 32.0% | $-28.31 | -27.5% |
| Rank 2 | 51 | 29.4% | +$10.15 | +19.9% |
| Rank 3 | 21 | 4.8% | $-17.80 | -84.8% |
| Rank 4-5 | 32 | 6.2% | $-13.50 | -42.2% |
| Rank 6+ | 32 | 9.4% | +$8.50 | +26.6% |
Based on 239 of 257 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 27 | 7.4% | $-16.50 | -61.1% |
| Outside Zone | 212 | 24.5% | $-24.46 | -11.5% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 142 | 24.6% | $-46.56 | -32.8% |
| sen_tips | 77 | 18.2% | $-12.45 | -16.2% |
| hub_playwright | 38 | 18.4% | +$6.53 | +17.2% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| flemington | 12 | 50.0% | +$42.95 | +357.9% |
| randwick | 5 | 20.0% | $-1.80 | -36.0% |
| ladbrokes geelong | 8 | 25.0% | $-2.90 | -36.3% |
| picklebet park wodonga | 8 | 12.5% | $-3.40 | -42.5% |
| hobart | 14 | 21.4% | $-3.60 | -25.7% |
| launceston | 37 | 29.7% | $-4.55 | -12.3% |
| sandown | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
| bet365 bairnsdale | 8 | 12.5% | $-5.40 | -67.5% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 67 | 14.9% | $-41.00 | -61.2% |
| Wed | 54 | 27.8% | $-10.31 | -19.1% |
| Fri | 31 | 29.0% | $-6.65 | -21.5% |
| Sat | 33 | 27.3% | +$10.10 | +30.6% |
| Sun | 34 | 17.6% | $-11.15 | -32.8% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 25 settled, place rate 40.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-8.34 (-33.3% ROI) on 25 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-31 | flemington | 7. Almontego | 17.50 | +$16.50 |
| 2026-08-23 | wangaratta | Sheer Lunacy | 12.00 | +$11.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | flemington | Mr Monaco | 11.00 | +$10.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | flemington | 8. Stage N Screen | 10.00 | +$9.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | flemington | Miss Waititi | 8.50 | +$7.50 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-10-10 | caulfield | 8. Sabaj | 9.40 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-24 | southside pakenham synthe | Nothingelsematters | 6.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | launceston | Merlin Beach | 2.10 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | launceston | Simply Deep | 1.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | hobart | Authorised Access | 6.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-18 22:27 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.