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Shayne Montgomery
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (42 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 23.8% trails market-implied 29.4% by -5.6pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -26.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw -41.9%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -22.7% (-19.2% → -41.9%) · Shrunk ROI: -9.8% (-16.4% → -26.2%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-17.60
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-26.2%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
29.4%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 42 | $-17.60 | -41.9% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 41 | $-19.80 | -48.3% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 40 | $-21.80 | -54.5% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 37 | $-26.65 | -72.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 6 | 33.3% | 4.33 | $-1.10 | -18.3% |
| 2026-05 | 15 | 26.7% | 3.99 | $-5.10 | -34.0% |
| 2026-06 | 13 | 15.4% | 4.81 | $-7.65 | -58.8% |
| 2026-07 | 8 | 25.0% | 3.49 | $-3.75 | -46.9% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 2 | 50.0% | $-0.50 | -25.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 14 | 50.0% | +$2.70 | +19.3% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 11 | 18.2% | $-4.80 | -43.6% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 12 | 0.0% | $-12.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 4 | 50.0% | +$0.50 | +12.5% |
| Rank 2 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 3 | 9 | 44.4% | +$0.80 | +8.9% |
| Rank 4-5 | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 23 of 42 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 21 | 28.6% | $-6.70 | -31.9% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sportsbet_racing | 42 | 23.8% | $-17.60 | -41.9% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| warwick farm | 6 | 50.0% | +$3.10 | +51.7% |
| scone | 5 | 60.0% | +$1.55 | +31.0% |
| tamworth | 6 | 16.7% | $-3.65 | -60.8% |
| muswellbrook | 8 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Fri | 3 | 33.3% | $-0.75 | -25.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 3 settled, place rate 66.7%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.12 (-4.0% ROI) on 3 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-19 | warwick farm | So Suave | 3.20 | +$2.20 |
| 2026-06-23 | warwick farm | Pin Up Sheila | 3.00 | +$2.00 |
| 2026-05-05 | warwick farm | Superfabulistic | 2.90 | +$1.90 |
| 2026-04-28 | kembla grange | Katoto | 2.60 | +$1.60 |
| 2026-06-25 | tamworth | Supido Star | 2.35 | +$1.35 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-24 | tamworth | Oenology | 8.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-19 | warwick farm | Supermassive | 6.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | coffs harbour | Hillbilly Hippie | 4.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | tamworth | Currumbin Alley | 3.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | coffs harbour | Rentessis | 2.40 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.