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Shayne Montgomery
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (29 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 20.7% trails market-implied 27.7% by -7.0pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -41.8%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+46.4%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -15.8% — a more honest expectation than the raw -20.5%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +7.2% (-27.7% → -20.5%) · Shrunk ROI: +6.6% (-22.4% → -15.8%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-5.95
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-15.8%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
27.7%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 29 | $-5.95 | -20.5% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 28 | $-10.95 | -39.1% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 27 | $-14.95 | -55.4% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 24 | $-21.85 | -91.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-08 | 16 | 25.0% | 4.21 | $-1.55 | -9.7% |
| 2026-09 | 13 | 15.4% | 5.06 | $-4.40 | -33.8% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 9 | 22.2% | $-4.25 | -47.2% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 8 | 25.0% | $-0.70 | -8.7% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 7 | 28.6% | +$4.00 | +57.1% |
| 8.0-15 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 8 | 12.5% | $-4.90 | -61.3% |
| Rank 2 | 7 | 28.6% | $-2.25 | -32.1% |
| Rank 3 | 5 | 20.0% | +$1.00 | +20.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 4 | 25.0% | +$0.20 | +5.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 28 of 29 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 5 | 20.0% | +$1.00 | +20.0% |
| Outside Zone | 23 | 17.4% | $-10.95 | -47.6% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sportsbet_racing | 29 | 20.7% | $-5.95 | -20.5% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| taree | 5 | 20.0% | +$1.00 | +20.0% |
| tamworth | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Fri | 1 | 100.0% | +$4.00 | +400.0% |
| Sat | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$3.35 (+335.2% ROI) on 1 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-21 | taree | Pearl Pendant | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | coffs harbour | Too Darn Finesse | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | scone | Herman Said | 4.20 | +$3.20 |
| 2026-08-17 | grafton | Dance Gavin Dance | 3.10 | +$2.10 |
| 2026-09-07 | muswellbrook | Amajicstar | 2.60 | +$1.60 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-21 | taree | Alabama Fox | 3.70 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | randwick | Unhinged | 3.70 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | taree | Surpasser | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-21 | taree | Rich Star | 2.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-24 | tamworth | Mongolian Master | 9.50 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.