Craig Morrison

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (36 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 27.8% trails market-implied 32.5% by -4.7pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -1.7%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-30.2%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

27.8%

Avg Odds

4.14

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-4.32

ROI

-12.0%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

32.5%

Calibration Gap

-4.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	36	$-4.32	-12.0%
Minus best 1 bet	35	$-8.82	-25.2%
Minus best 2 bets	34	$-12.90	-37.9%
Minus best 5 bets	31	$-21.60	-69.7%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-1.7%

Prior 60d ROI

-30.2%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	7	14.3%	4.81	$-3.00	-42.9%
2026-04	18	27.8%	4.38	+$0.58	+3.2%
2026-05	11	36.4%	3.32	$-1.90	-17.3%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	5	60.0%	$-0.20	-4.0%
2.0-3.0	11	27.3%	$-1.32	-12.0%
3.0-5.0	10	30.0%	+$1.70	+17.0%
5.0-8.0	5	20.0%	+$0.50	+10.0%
8.0-15	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	36	27.8%	$-4.32	-12.0%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
albany	36	27.8%	$-4.32	-12.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Thu	14	28.6%	$-3.00	-21.4%
Fri	8	37.5%	$-0.40	-5.0%
Sun	14	21.4%	$-0.92	-6.6%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-26	albany	Miss Rompin	5.50	+$4.50
2026-04-05	albany	Wineaclocksumwhere	2.60	+$4.08
2026-03-19	albany	Cruise To Rio	4.00	+$3.00
2026-04-16	albany	Gingers Sister	3.90	+$2.90
2026-05-15	albany	We Love Charlie	3.80	+$2.80

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-15	albany	Magic Mikey	8.50	$-1.00
2026-03-19	albany	Acoustic Bubbles	2.45	$-1.00
2026-03-19	albany	Cosmic Gem	2.10	$-1.00
2026-05-15	albany	Diablo Lad	3.50	$-1.00
2026-04-26	albany	Storm Commander	9.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.