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Craig Morrison
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Small sample (23 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 34.8% vs implied 34.9% (-0.1pp). Picks track market expectations. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -9.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw -1.7%.
Bio & context
Craig Morrison appears to be a racing tipster associated with SKY Racing who provides tips through platforms like theGreatTipOff. Limited public information is available to verify his background, methodology, or track record. A LinkedIn profile indicates he works as a Horse Racing Broadcaster, but detailed biographical information, tenure, and any potential conflicts of interest could not be confirmed through publicly available sources.
Racing broadcaster and tipster
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- Insufficient public information to identify potential conflicts of interest
Public footprint
- theGreatTipOff platform (SKY Racing section)
- LinkedIn profile (Horse Racing Broadcaster)
- Possible Twitter: @craigmorro47 (unconfirmed if same person)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-10
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +10.3% (-12.0% → -1.7%) · Shrunk ROI: +3.1% (-12.6% → -9.5%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-0.40
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-9.5%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
34.9%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 23 | $-0.40 | -1.7% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 22 | $-4.90 | -22.3% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 21 | $-7.80 | -37.1% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 18 | $-13.20 | -73.3% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 12 | 33.3% | 4.00 | +$1.50 | +12.5% |
| 2026-05 | 11 | 36.4% | 3.32 | $-1.90 | -17.3% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 4 | 75.0% | +$0.80 | +20.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 7 | 28.6% | $-2.40 | -34.3% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 7 | 28.6% | +$0.70 | +10.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 3 | 33.3% | +$2.50 | +83.3% |
| 8.0-15 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
No rank data yet.
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 23 | 34.8% | $-0.40 | -1.7% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| albany | 23 | 34.8% | $-0.40 | -1.7% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Thu | 7 | 42.9% | +$0.00 | +0.0% |
| Fri | 8 | 37.5% | $-0.40 | -5.0% |
| Sun | 8 | 25.0% | +$0.00 | +0.0% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-26 | albany | Miss Rompin | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
| 2026-04-16 | albany | Gingers Sister | 3.90 | +$2.90 |
| 2026-05-15 | albany | We Love Charlie | 3.80 | +$2.80 |
| 2026-04-26 | albany | Aurora Queen | 2.50 | +$1.50 |
| 2026-05-15 | albany | Pincer Movement | 2.10 | +$1.10 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-15 | albany | Magic Mikey | 8.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | albany | Diablo Lad | 3.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-26 | albany | Storm Commander | 9.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | albany | What A Prince | 3.70 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | albany | Brave Apache | 3.30 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.