Nick Tedeschi

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (54 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 18.5% trails market-implied 90.9% by -72.4pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -7.8%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-78.2%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -38.7% — a more honest expectation than the raw -62.6%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +17.5% (-80.1% → -62.6%) · Shrunk ROI: +10.3% (-49.0% → -38.7%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

18.5%

Avg Odds

1.58

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-33.79

ROI

-62.6%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-38.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

90.9%

Calibration Gap

-72.4pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	54	$-33.79	-62.6%
Minus best 1 bet	53	$-40.39	-76.2%
Minus best 2 bets	52	$-41.75	-80.3%
Minus best 5 bets	49	$-43.89	-89.6%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-7.8%

Prior 60d ROI

-78.2%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	19	15.8%	1.09	$-14.96	-78.7%
2026-08	23	13.0%	1.10	$-17.90	-77.8%
2026-09	12	33.3%	3.26	$-0.93	-7.8%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	49	12.2%	$-41.82	-85.3%
2.0-3.0	3	66.7%	+$1.38	+46.0%
5.0-8.0	1	100.0%	+$6.60	+660.0%
15+	1	100.0%	+$0.05	+5.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	3	66.7%	+$0.12	+4.0%
Rank 2	3	100.0%	+$8.98	+299.3%
Rank 6+	1	100.0%	+$0.05	+5.0%

Based on 54 of 54 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	100.0%	+$6.60	+660.0%
Outside Zone	53	17.0%	$-40.39	-76.2%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	54	18.5%	$-33.79	-62.6%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-30	James Tedesco	7.60	+$6.60
2026-08-08	Newcastle	2.36	+$1.36
2026-07-25	Gold Coast	2.02	+$1.02
2026-08-15	Parramatta	1.71	+$0.71
2026-09-03	Melbourne	1.41	+$0.41

Biggest losses

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-13	Penrith	1.01	$-1.00
2026-08-15	Cronulla	1.01	$-1.00
2026-07-31	Under	1.01	$-1.00
2026-08-29	Under	1.01	$-1.00
2026-09-12	Penrith	1.01	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.