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Sam Hyland
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 25.0% vs implied 24.6% (+0.4pp). Picks track market expectations. 138% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -7.1% on 86 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI -38.0%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+36.8%) — trend is declining.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$15.93
Implied Win % (1/odds)
24.6%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 88 | +$15.93 | +18.1% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 87 | +$3.93 | +4.5% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 86 | $-6.07 | -7.1% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 83 | $-25.10 | -30.2% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 27 | 25.9% | 6.41 | +$10.85 | +40.2% |
| 2026-04 | 41 | 31.7% | 5.02 | +$11.44 | +27.9% |
| 2026-05 | 20 | 10.0% | 6.36 | $-6.36 | -31.8% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 2 | 100.0% | +$2.72 | +136.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 20 | 30.0% | $-3.27 | -16.3% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 32 | 21.9% | $-7.45 | -23.3% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 16 | 25.0% | +$9.50 | +59.4% |
| 8.0-15 | 14 | 21.4% | +$18.43 | +131.6% |
| 15+ | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 2 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 1 | 100.0% | +$12.00 | +1200.0% |
Based on 6 of 88 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 6 | 16.7% | +$7.00 | +116.7% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 88 | 25.0% | +$15.93 | +18.1% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| ipswich | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Tue | 7 | 42.9% | +$5.60 | +80.0% |
| Wed | 14 | 28.6% | +$5.28 | +37.7% |
| Thu | 31 | 22.6% | +$7.99 | +25.8% |
| Fri | 6 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -133.3% |
| Sat | 15 | 20.0% | +$6.60 | +44.0% |
| Sun | 13 | 38.5% | +$0.46 | +3.5% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-23 | murray bridge | My Zephyr | 13.00 | +$12.00 |
| 2026-03-04 | townsville | Northernontap | 11.00 | +$10.00 |
| 2026-04-15 | sandown | Jett Smash | 8.50 | +$7.43 |
| 2026-03-12 | wagga | Dunna Runna | 7.00 | +$6.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | kyneton | Zoulette | 5.00 | +$5.60 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-21 | taree | Villa Castina | 2.45 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-26 | port macquarie | Rockbarton Icon | 4.80 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | mackay | Early Fusion | 3.20 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-16 | wyong | Miss Capitale | 4.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | wagga | Quietness | 4.80 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.