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Sam Hyland
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 18.8% trails market-implied 23.9% by -5.1pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -14.2%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-30.6%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -19.6% — a more honest expectation than the raw -24.4%.
Bio & context
Sam Hyland (Samuel Hyland) is a racing broadcaster and tipster from a prominent Victorian racing family. He is the son of Hall of Fame jockey and trainer Pat Hyland (deceased March 2026) and brother to trainer Chris Hyland and VJA CEO Matthew Hyland. He worked for Racing Queensland before moving to SEN/SENTrack radio network where he provides tips and racing commentary, particularly for NSW and Queensland racing.
NSW (formerly Queensland, originally Victoria)Racing broadcaster and tipster10 yrs
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- Brother Chris Hyland is active trainer - monitor for Chris Hyland-trained picks
- Brother Matthew Hyland is VJA CEO - potential insider access to jockey information
- Family legacy and deep industry connections throughout Victoria
- Stated 'I live and breathe horse racing...everybody in my family is horse racing' (Aug 2022)
- Previously worked for Racing Queensland (statutory body) until 2021 - may retain QLD industry connections
Methodology: Value-focused selections targeting higher odds runners; described as seeking runners outside standard favourites with average odds around $8.60
Specialty: Queensland racing (historically), now provides tips across multiple tracks/states
Public footprint
- SEN/SENTrack radio broadcaster
- Twitter/X handle: @HylandSamuel
- Formerly Racing Queensland presenter
- The Punter's Mate podcast with Chris Nelson
- Appeared on The Odds Couple (SEN)
- LinkedIn profile active
Horse ownership / breeding
- Comes from family with training operation at Nar Nar Goon North, Victoria
- Former jockey himself (early career)
- No current ownership publicly disclosed but family has extensive racing involvement
Industry connections
- Brother of trainer Chris Hyland (training partnership with father Pat)
- Brother of Matthew Hyland (CEO Victorian Jockeys Association)
- Son of late Pat Hyland (Hall of Fame jockey/trainer)
- Family deeply embedded in Victorian racing industry
Public track-record claims
- May 2024 claim: $1,780 profit from 8 tips with 'impressive strike rate' (The Great Tip Off marketing content)
- March 2026 performance tracked on The Great Tip Off showing '6 winning days in row' and various profit claims (third-party aggregator data)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-10
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -32.4% (+8.0% → -24.4%) · Shrunk ROI: -23.1% (+3.5% → -19.6%) · Verdict: ROI MISLEADING → STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-16.85
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-19.6%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
23.9%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 69 | $-16.85 | -24.4% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 68 | $-28.85 | -42.4% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 67 | $-34.45 | -51.4% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 64 | $-48.05 | -75.1% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 23 | 17.4% | 5.60 | $-6.79 | -29.5% |
| 2026-05 | 20 | 10.0% | 6.36 | $-6.36 | -31.8% |
| 2026-06 | 23 | 30.4% | 5.28 | $-0.70 | -3.0% |
| 2026-07 | 3 | 0.0% | 7.03 | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 2 | 100.0% | +$2.81 | +140.5% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 14 | 28.6% | $-6.36 | -45.4% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 24 | 12.5% | $-15.40 | -64.2% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 14 | 21.4% | +$4.10 | +29.3% |
| 8.0-15 | 12 | 8.3% | +$1.00 | +8.3% |
| 15+ | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 9 | 22.2% | $-5.00 | -55.6% |
| Rank 2 | 6 | 33.3% | $-1.20 | -20.0% |
| Rank 3 | 4 | 50.0% | +$5.10 | +127.5% |
| Rank 4-5 | 9 | 11.1% | $-4.60 | -51.1% |
| Rank 6+ | 4 | 25.0% | +$9.00 | +225.0% |
Based on 32 of 69 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 2 | 50.0% | +$4.00 | +200.0% |
| Outside Zone | 30 | 23.3% | $-0.70 | -2.3% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 69 | 18.8% | $-16.85 | -24.4% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| ipswich | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Tue | 4 | 50.0% | +$4.60 | +115.0% |
| Wed | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| Thu | 31 | 19.4% | $-9.76 | -31.5% |
| Fri | 9 | 0.0% | $-11.00 | -122.2% |
| Sat | 7 | 14.3% | +$6.00 | +85.7% |
| Sun | 12 | 33.3% | $-0.69 | -5.8% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 100.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.68 (+33.8% ROI) on 2 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-23 | murray bridge | My Zephyr | 13.00 | +$12.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | kyneton | Zoulette | 5.00 | +$5.60 |
| 2026-06-28 | dubbo | The Mailer | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
| 2026-04-21 | queanbeyan | Curly Bend | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
| 2026-04-21 | swan hill | Celtic Park | 4.20 | +$4.10 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-21 | taree | Villa Castina | 2.45 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-26 | port macquarie | Rockbarton Icon | 4.80 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | mackay | Early Fusion | 3.20 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-16 | wyong | Miss Capitale | 4.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-25 | ipswich | Vixenette | 4.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.