Trent Crebbin

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-08-15 08:15 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (11 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 18.2% trails market-implied 23.3% by -5.1pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. 1350% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -100.0% on 9 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -9.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw +6.5%.

Since last weekly snapshot: +3 new bets · ROI: +91.3% (-84.8% → +6.5%) · Shrunk ROI: +13.4% (-22.9% → -9.5%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → ROI MISLEADING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

18.2%

Avg Odds

7.33

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$0.72

ROI

+6.5%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-9.5%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

23.3%

Calibration Gap

-5.1pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	11	+$0.72	+6.5%
Minus best 1 bet	10	$-8.78	-87.8%
Minus best 2 bets	9	$-9.00	-100.0%
Minus best 5 bets	6	$-6.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	1	0.0%	11.00	$-1.00	-100.0%
2026-07	5	20.0%	6.95	$-3.78	-75.6%
2026-08	5	20.0%	6.98	+$5.50	+110.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
3.0-5.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
5.0-8.0	3	33.3%	$-1.78	-59.3%
8.0-15	5	20.0%	+$5.50	+110.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	3	66.7%	+$8.72	+290.7%

Based on 9 of 11 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	7	28.6%	+$4.72	+67.4%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	11	18.2%	+$0.72	+6.5%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
caulfield	8	25.0%	+$3.72	+46.5%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 25.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-2.37 (-59.1% ROI) on 4 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-14	caulfield	10. Fundamental Nature	10.50	+$9.50
2026-07-10	caulfield	1. Like A Drifter	5.50	+$0.22

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-08	caulfield	4. Magnaspin	12.00	$-1.00
2026-07-10	caulfield	13. Beechworth	1.03	$-1.00
2026-08-14	caulfield	9. Educated	3.60	$-1.00
2026-07-18		3. Flying Done	8.60	$-1.00
2026-07-11	caulfield	2. Davida	14.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-08-15 08:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.