Trent Crebbin

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-29 22:17 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (50 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 26.0% beats market-implied 20.0% by +6.0pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 95% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of +3.8% on 48 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI +93.8%) is materially better than the prior 60d (+20.2%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +30.8% — a more honest expectation than the raw +74.6%.

Since last weekly snapshot: +6 new bets · ROI: +13.0% (+61.7% → +74.6%) · Shrunk ROI: +8.9% (+21.9% → +30.8%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

26.0%

Avg Odds

9.69

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$37.31

ROI

+74.6%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

+30.8%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

20.0%

Calibration Gap

+6.0pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	50	+$37.31	+74.6%
Minus best 1 bet	49	+$11.31	+23.1%
Minus best 2 bets	48	+$1.81	+3.8%
Minus best 5 bets	45	$-17.59	-39.1%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

+93.8%

Prior 60d ROI

+20.2%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	5	20.0%	6.95	$-3.78	-75.6%
2026-08	16	12.5%	14.20	$-1.60	-10.0%
2026-09	29	34.5%	7.67	+$42.69	+147.2%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
2.0-3.0	7	42.9%	+$0.94	+13.4%
3.0-5.0	11	18.2%	$-3.65	-33.2%
5.0-8.0	13	38.5%	+$12.32	+94.8%
8.0-15	9	22.2%	+$10.70	+118.9%
15+	9	11.1%	+$18.00	+200.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	13	38.5%	+$3.99	+30.7%
Rank 2	6	16.7%	+$0.00	+0.0%
Rank 3	7	14.3%	+$0.20	+2.9%
Rank 4-5	8	12.5%	+$1.20	+15.0%
Rank 6+	11	18.2%	+$0.72	+6.5%

Based on 45 of 50 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	9	33.3%	+$9.80	+108.9%
Outside Zone	36	19.4%	$-3.69	-10.2%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	50	26.0%	+$37.31	+74.6%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
caulfield	22	18.2%	$-1.70	-7.7%
randwick	5	20.0%	$-2.14	-42.8%
flemington	7	14.3%	$-3.55	-50.7%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 16 settled, place rate 50.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.30 (-1.9% ROI) on 16 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-12		4. Savvy Hallie	27.00	+$26.00
2026-08-14	caulfield	10. Fundamental Nature	10.50	+$9.50
2026-09-12	rosehill	5. Warwoven	9.20	+$8.20
2026-09-26		10. Regal Ambition	7.20	+$6.20
2026-09-26		1. Royal Supremacy	6.00	+$5.00

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-28	caulfield	10. Darkbonee	3.05	$-1.00
2026-08-08	caulfield	4. Magnaspin	12.00	$-1.00
2026-08-29	caulfield	9. Bridal Waltz	3.95	$-1.00
2026-07-10	caulfield	13. Beechworth	1.03	$-1.00
2026-09-19	randwick	8. Sequinned	21.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-09-29 22:17 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.