Howard Walter

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-16 11:02 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (23 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 30.4% vs implied 31.7% (-1.2pp). Picks track market expectations. 152% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -25.5% on 21 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI +233.3%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-22.1%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +5.1% — a more honest expectation than the raw +44.6%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +66.2% (-21.6% → +44.6%) · Shrunk ROI: +22.0% (-16.9% → +5.1%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → ROI MISLEADING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

30.4%

Avg Odds

4.44

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$10.25

ROI

+44.6%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

+5.1%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

31.7%

Calibration Gap

-1.2pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	23	+$10.25	+44.6%
Minus best 1 bet	22	$-1.75	-8.0%
Minus best 2 bets	21	$-5.35	-25.5%
Minus best 5 bets	18	$-13.55	-75.3%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

+233.3%

Prior 60d ROI

-22.1%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	4	25.0%	5.42	+$0.60	+15.0%
2026-07	4	25.0%	6.40	$-1.40	-35.0%
2026-08	11	18.2%	2.98	$-4.95	-45.0%
2026-09	4	75.0%	5.50	+$16.00	+400.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	4	25.0%	$-2.15	-53.8%
2.0-3.0	5	20.0%	$-2.40	-48.0%
3.0-5.0	8	50.0%	+$7.80	+97.5%
5.0-8.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	4	25.0%	+$9.00	+225.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	5	20.0%	$-2.40	-48.0%
Rank 2	8	50.0%	+$7.80	+97.5%
Rank 3	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	6	33.3%	+$8.85	+147.5%

Based on 23 of 23 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	22	31.8%	+$11.25	+51.1%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	23	30.4%	+$10.25	+44.6%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Tue	3	66.7%	+$5.10	+170.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 50.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$5.47 (+136.8% ROI) on 4 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-14	bowen	Diamond Lucy	13.00	+$12.00
2026-06-29	kilcoy	Vorkuta	4.60	+$3.60
2026-08-04	doomben	Had It All	4.20	+$3.20
2026-09-14	bowen	Excelboom	3.50	+$2.50
2026-09-14	bowen	Excelboom	3.50	+$2.50

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-04	menangle	Raging Raider	1.85	$-1.00
2026-08-04	warwick	Raging Raider	2.10	$-1.00
2026-08-06	ipswich	Better Sweet	1.90	$-1.00
2026-06-30	eagle farm	Valorous Power	3.90	$-1.00
2026-06-30	eagle farm	Mehretu	10.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-09-16 11:02 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.