Howard Walter

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Small sample (18 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 27.8% vs implied 26.0% (+1.7pp). Picks track market expectations. Recent 30d (ROI +13.8%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-15.5%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -10.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw -2.5%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +20.8% (-23.3% → -2.5%) · Shrunk ROI: +7.3% (-17.5% → -10.2%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

27.8%

Avg Odds

5.65

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-0.45

ROI

-2.5%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-10.2%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

26.0%

Calibration Gap

+1.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	18	$-0.45	-2.5%
Minus best 1 bet	17	$-4.05	-23.8%
Minus best 2 bets	16	$-7.55	-47.2%
Minus best 5 bets	13	$-13.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

+13.8%

Prior 60d ROI

-15.5%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	4	50.0%	5.05	+$2.20	+55.0%
2026-05	6	16.7%	3.77	$-3.75	-62.5%
2026-06	8	25.0%	7.36	+$1.10	+13.8%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	100.0%	+$0.70	+70.0%
2.0-3.0	3	33.3%	$-0.75	-25.0%
3.0-5.0	9	33.3%	+$4.60	+51.1%
8.0-15	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Rank 2	3	66.7%	+$6.10	+203.3%
Rank 3	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	2	50.0%	+$0.25	+12.5%

Based on 12 of 18 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	11	27.3%	+$0.35	+3.2%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	18	27.8%	$-0.45	-2.5%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
doomben	6	16.7%	$-1.50	-25.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Tue	2	50.0%	+$2.60	+130.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 50.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.51 (-25.5% ROI) on 2 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-29	kilcoy	Vorkuta	4.60	+$3.60
2026-06-16	doomben	Tinklejazz	4.50	+$3.50
2026-04-27	warwick	Colleano	4.50	+$3.50
2026-05-21	kilcoy	Outatick	2.25	+$1.25
2026-04-27	warwick	Past Midnight	1.70	+$0.70

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-21	doomben	Fashionable	9.50	$-1.00
2026-06-30	eagle farm	Valorous Power	3.90	$-1.00
2026-06-30	eagle farm	Mehretu	10.00	$-1.00
2026-04-21	doomben	Kadesky	4.50	$-1.00
2026-06-16	doomben	Vital Impact	20.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.