Mathew French

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (6 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 16.7% trails market-implied 28.1% by -11.5pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

16.7%

Avg Odds

4.59

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-4.05

ROI

-67.5%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

28.1%

Calibration Gap

-11.5pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-05	6	16.7%	4.59	$-4.05	-67.5%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	100.0%	+$0.95	+95.0%
2.0-3.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
5.0-8.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	3	33.3%	$-1.05	-35.0%
Rank 4-5	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 6 of 6 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	6	16.7%	$-4.05	-67.5%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	6	16.7%	$-4.05	-67.5%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
broome	6	16.7%	$-4.05	-67.5%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Sat	6	16.7%	$-4.05	-67.5%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.56 (+156.0% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-23	broome	Now You See Me	1.95	+$0.95

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-23	broome	The Top Bar	2.90	$-1.00
2026-05-23	broome	Make Your Point	6.50	$-1.00
2026-05-23	broome	Spice Is Right	2.70	$-1.00
2026-05-23	broome	Gift Of The Heart	8.00	$-1.00
2026-05-23	broome	Areduet	5.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.