Mathew French

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Small sample (39 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 23.1% vs implied 23.9% (-0.8pp). Picks track market expectations. Recent 30d (ROI +34.6%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-70.8%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -7.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw -0.5%.

Since last weekly snapshot: +4 new bets · ROI: +48.2% (-48.7% → -0.5%) · Shrunk ROI: +20.2% (-27.7% → -7.5%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

23.1%

Avg Odds

5.99

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-0.20

ROI

-0.5%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-7.5%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

23.9%

Calibration Gap

-0.8pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	39	$-0.20	-0.5%
Minus best 1 bet	38	$-18.20	-47.9%
Minus best 2 bets	37	$-20.70	-55.9%
Minus best 5 bets	34	$-26.25	-77.2%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

+34.6%

Prior 60d ROI

-70.8%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-05	6	16.7%	4.59	$-4.05	-67.5%
2026-06	18	22.2%	5.12	$-8.70	-48.3%
2026-07	15	26.7%	7.60	+$12.55	+83.7%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	3	100.0%	+$2.70	+90.0%
2.0-3.0	6	50.0%	+$1.10	+18.3%
3.0-5.0	13	15.4%	$-6.00	-46.2%
5.0-8.0	8	0.0%	$-8.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
15+	3	33.3%	+$16.00	+533.3%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	14	50.0%	+$2.30	+16.4%
Rank 2	6	16.7%	$-2.50	-41.7%
Rank 3	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	10	0.0%	$-10.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	6	16.7%	+$13.00	+216.7%

Based on 39 of 39 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	37	24.3%	+$1.80	+4.9%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	39	23.1%	$-0.20	-0.5%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
broome	24	20.8%	+$2.75	+11.5%
marble bar	5	20.0%	$-1.50	-30.0%
port hedland	6	16.7%	$-2.50	-41.7%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Fri	4	50.0%	+$1.05	+26.2%
Sat	35	20.0%	$-1.25	-3.6%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 6 settled, place rate 66.7%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$6.05 (+100.9% ROI) on 6 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-11	broome	Shasfa	19.00	+$18.00
2026-07-04	marble bar	Star Power	3.50	+$2.50
2026-06-20	port hedland	Wing It	3.50	+$2.50
2026-07-10	carnarvon	Only Us	2.60	+$1.60
2026-07-10	carnarvon	Aardvark	2.45	+$1.45

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-10	carnarvon	Danea Rock	8.00	$-1.00
2026-06-06	broome	Sempre	7.00	$-1.00
2026-06-06	broome	Cheval Savant	14.00	$-1.00
2026-05-23	broome	The Top Bar	2.90	$-1.00
2026-07-11	broome	Hard To Top	8.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.