Mathew French

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-20 22:22 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 23.3% trails market-implied 29.4% by -6.1pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -29.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw -33.6%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -6.0% (-27.6% → -33.6%) · Shrunk ROI: -4.7% (-24.8% → -29.5%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

202

Wins

Win Rate

23.3%

Avg Odds

5.02

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-67.80

ROI

-33.6%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-29.5%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

29.4%

Calibration Gap

-6.1pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	202	$-67.80	-33.6%
Minus best 1 bet	201	$-78.80	-39.2%
Minus best 2 bets	200	$-82.80	-41.4%
Minus best 5 bets	197	$-93.20	-47.3%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-30.2%

Prior 60d ROI

-38.2%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	7	42.9%	3.92	+$3.25	+46.4%
2026-08	24	12.5%	4.58	$-12.60	-52.5%
2026-09	98	25.5%	5.08	$-32.30	-33.0%
2026-10	73	21.9%	5.20	$-26.15	-35.8%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	19	57.9%	$-1.05	-5.5%
2.0-3.0	52	38.5%	$-3.85	-7.4%
3.0-5.0	64	21.9%	$-12.90	-20.2%
5.0-8.0	37	2.7%	$-32.00	-86.5%
8.0-15	24	4.2%	$-12.00	-50.0%
15+	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	88	36.4%	$-8.40	-9.5%
Rank 2	38	23.7%	$-9.30	-24.5%
Rank 3	26	3.8%	$-21.40	-82.3%
Rank 4-5	27	7.4%	$-12.50	-46.3%
Rank 6+	23	13.0%	$-16.20	-70.4%

Based on 202 of 202 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	23	4.3%	$-18.00	-78.3%
Outside Zone	179	25.7%	$-49.80	-27.8%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	202	23.3%	$-67.80	-33.6%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
roebourne	7	42.9%	+$3.25	+46.4%
leinster	5	60.0%	+$1.95	+39.0%
carnarvon	11	27.3%	$-1.30	-11.8%
port hedland	7	14.3%	$-2.00	-28.6%
broome	5	20.0%	$-2.30	-46.0%
northam	26	19.2%	$-2.50	-9.6%
geraldton	14	21.4%	$-5.10	-36.4%
bunbury	25	36.0%	$-5.25	-21.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	7	14.3%	$-4.30	-61.4%
Wed	40	32.5%	$-10.05	-25.1%
Thu	18	27.8%	$-4.85	-26.9%
Sat	83	25.3%	$-25.95	-31.3%
Sun	54	13.0%	$-22.65	-41.9%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 13 settled, place rate 76.9%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$4.70 (+36.1% ROI) on 13 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-10-04	northam	Forgot The Rock	12.00	+$11.00
2026-08-02	port hedland	Playing Quest	5.00	+$4.00
2026-09-10	bunbury	Lash Out	4.80	+$3.80
2026-07-25	roebourne	Zadar Rock	4.60	+$3.60
2026-09-30	geraldton	In Situ	4.00	+$3.00

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-09	belmont	Mon Visage	6.00	$-1.00
2026-09-12	belmont	Memory Parade	4.80	$-1.00
2026-09-13	northam	Chandra	7.50	$-1.00
2026-09-09	belmont	The Nun	8.00	$-1.00
2026-10-04	northam	Azabelle	10.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-20 22:22 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.