Mathew French

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-04 04:51 UTC

Verdict

BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Small sample (57 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 22.8% trails market-implied 26.6% by -3.8pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -30.2%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+34.6%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -6.4% — a more honest expectation than the raw -0.6%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +13.0% (-13.6% → -0.6%) · Shrunk ROI: +7.0% (-13.4% → -6.4%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

22.8%

Avg Odds

5.15

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-0.35

ROI

-0.6%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-6.4%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

26.6%

Calibration Gap

-3.8pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	57	$-0.35	-0.6%
Minus best 1 bet	56	$-18.35	-32.8%
Minus best 2 bets	55	$-22.35	-40.6%
Minus best 5 bets	52	$-31.15	-59.9%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-30.2%

Prior 60d ROI

+34.6%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	11	27.3%	3.81	$-3.55	-32.3%
2026-07	22	31.8%	6.43	+$15.80	+71.8%
2026-08	24	12.5%	4.58	$-12.60	-52.5%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	3	33.3%	$-1.10	-36.7%
2.0-3.0	11	45.5%	+$0.95	+8.6%
3.0-5.0	24	20.8%	$-5.20	-21.7%
5.0-8.0	11	9.1%	$-6.00	-54.5%
8.0-15	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
15+	4	25.0%	+$15.00	+375.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	27	33.3%	$-2.45	-9.1%
Rank 2	10	20.0%	$-1.50	-15.0%
Rank 3	6	16.7%	$-1.40	-23.3%
Rank 4-5	8	0.0%	$-8.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	6	16.7%	+$13.00	+216.7%

Based on 57 of 57 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	6	16.7%	$-1.00	-16.7%
Outside Zone	51	23.5%	+$0.65	+1.3%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	57	22.8%	$-0.35	-0.6%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
broome	16	25.0%	+$9.65	+60.3%
roebourne	7	42.9%	+$3.25	+46.4%
carnarvon	9	33.3%	$-0.25	-2.8%
marble bar	5	20.0%	$-1.50	-30.0%
port hedland	13	15.4%	$-4.50	-34.6%
belmont	7	0.0%	$-7.00	-100.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Fri	4	50.0%	+$1.05	+26.2%
Sat	41	22.0%	+$1.90	+4.6%
Sun	12	16.7%	$-3.30	-27.5%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 8 settled, place rate 50.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.24 (+15.5% ROI) on 8 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-11	broome	Shasfa	19.00	+$18.00
2026-08-02	port hedland	Playing Quest	5.00	+$4.00
2026-07-25	roebourne	Zadar Rock	4.60	+$3.60
2026-08-16	carnarvon	Tango Rhythm	3.70	+$2.70
2026-07-04	marble bar	Star Power	3.50	+$2.50

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-16	carnarvon	Busy Fingers	3.80	$-1.00
2026-07-25	roebourne	Calathinite	5.00	$-1.00
2026-08-15	belmont	Non Reflective	3.10	$-1.00
2026-08-15	belmont	Lillian	2.40	$-1.00
2026-08-02	port hedland	Dynamic One	4.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-09-04 04:51 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.