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Matt Hill
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 26.3% trails market-implied 31.2% by -4.9pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.
Bio & context
Matt Hill is primarily Australia's chief race caller for Racing.com (since 2017), not a professional tipster. However, he provides occasional racing tips through RSN Racing and appears in media for major events like the Melbourne Cup. His tipping is a secondary activity to his main role as one of Australia's most prominent race callers, having called the Melbourne Cup, Cox Plate, and Caulfield Cup since taking over from Greg Miles in 2017.
Melbourne, VictoriaRace caller (Racing.com) with occasional tipping for RSN Racing26 yrs
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- As Racing.com's chief caller, Hill has daily professional contact with trainers, jockeys, and owners at Victorian metro tracks — tips may reflect insider information or relationships
- No disclosed horse ownership found, but family connection to a trainer in his youth
- Tipping is clearly secondary to his primary employment as race caller
Methodology: Form-based analysis with day-before preparation researching horses and learning colours. Tips appear to be informed by insider knowledge from his position as lead race caller with access to trainers, jockeys, and racing industry connections.
Specialty: Victorian metropolitan racing (Flemington, Caulfield, Moonee Valley, Sandown); major carnival races
Public footprint
- Racing.com chief race caller (2017-present)
- RSN Racing tipster (occasional)
- Previously Sky Racing Sydney chief caller (2000-2015)
- BBC Radio Grand National caller (7 times, lead caller 2018)
- SEN Track appearances for major race tips
- Personal website: matthill.com.au
- Twitter: @thematthill (handle identified but content not accessible)
- The Great Tip Off platform (tips tracked under RSN Racing)
- Triple M Rush Hour guest appearances
- AFL commentary (Fox Footy, SEN AFL Nation)
Industry connections
- Greg Miles (mentor, succeeded him as Victoria's chief caller)
- Family friend who was a trainer (early exposure to racing)
- Racing.com broadcast team
- RSN Racing expert panel
Public track-record claims
- The Great Tip Off shows: 'Turned $700 into $2,230' and '65 winners at Hawkesbury' (aggregated stats, appears to be platform marketing)
- Individual day results show variable strike rates (13%-30% range in Sept 2025 samples)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-10
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -15.7% (-10.9% → -26.6%) · Shrunk ROI: -12.6% (-11.1% → -23.7%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-49.50
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-23.7%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
31.2%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 186 | $-49.50 | -26.6% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 185 | $-54.00 | -29.2% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 184 | $-58.50 | -31.8% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 181 | $-71.00 | -39.2% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 48 | 25.0% | 4.34 | $-8.55 | -17.8% |
| 2026-08 | 62 | 29.0% | 3.91 | $-14.55 | -23.5% |
| 2026-09 | 59 | 23.7% | 4.13 | $-22.05 | -37.4% |
| 2026-10 | 17 | 29.4% | 4.31 | $-4.35 | -25.6% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 22 | 59.1% | $-0.10 | -0.5% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 55 | 38.2% | $-4.10 | -7.5% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 50 | 20.0% | $-12.80 | -25.6% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 48 | 10.4% | $-21.50 | -44.8% |
| 8.0-15 | 11 | 0.0% | $-11.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 105 | 37.1% | $-11.50 | -11.0% |
| Rank 2 | 34 | 23.5% | $-2.00 | -5.9% |
| Rank 3 | 25 | 8.0% | $-14.00 | -56.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 15 | 0.0% | $-15.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 186 of 186 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 37 | 13.5% | $-10.50 | -28.4% |
| Outside Zone | 149 | 29.5% | $-39.00 | -26.2% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 186 | 26.3% | $-49.50 | -26.6% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| ladbrokes geelong | 15 | 53.3% | +$2.65 | +17.7% |
| caulfield heath | 9 | 33.3% | +$0.70 | +7.8% |
| sportsbet sandown lakeside | 16 | 18.8% | $-9.50 | -59.4% |
| caulfield | 53 | 26.4% | $-9.60 | -18.1% |
| sportsbet sandown hillside | 55 | 25.5% | $-14.75 | -26.8% |
| flemington | 38 | 18.4% | $-19.00 | -50.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Wed | 61 | 29.5% | $-13.70 | -22.5% |
| Sat | 108 | 25.0% | $-30.40 | -28.1% |
| Sun | 17 | 23.5% | $-5.40 | -31.8% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 13 settled, place rate 69.2%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.12 (+8.6% ROI) on 13 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-11 | caulfield | Winnasedge | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
| 2026-08-08 | caulfield heath | Behaviour | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
| 2026-09-19 | caulfield | Emperor Tzu | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
| 2026-09-27 | caulfield | Regal Ambition | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-07-18 | flemington | Changing Colours | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-11 | caulfield | Amleto | 2.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-15 | caulfield | Riverina Lulu | 7.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-22 | sportsbet sandown hillsid | Batoka Chief | 8.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-15 | caulfield | Closer To Free | 2.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | caulfield | Shadhavar | 2.60 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.