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Matt Hill
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 29.6% vs implied 31.6% (-2.0pp). Picks track market expectations. 354% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -13.4% on 177 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$9.31
Implied Win % (1/odds)
31.6%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 179 | +$9.31 | +5.2% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 178 | $-7.49 | -4.2% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 177 | $-23.69 | -13.4% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 174 | $-58.86 | -33.8% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 25 | 44.0% | 3.32 | +$22.28 | +89.1% |
| 2026-04 | 80 | 27.5% | 3.61 | $-15.61 | -19.5% |
| 2026-05 | 74 | 27.0% | 4.51 | +$2.64 | +3.6% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 18 | 61.1% | $-2.35 | -13.1% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 51 | 41.2% | $-1.36 | -2.7% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 70 | 17.1% | $-21.79 | -31.1% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 30 | 26.7% | +$33.81 | +112.7% |
| 8.0-15 | 10 | 10.0% | +$1.00 | +10.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 15 | 33.3% | $-5.69 | -37.9% |
| Rank 2 | 8 | 0.0% | $-12.00 | -150.0% |
| Rank 3 | 4 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -150.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 4 | 50.0% | +$11.20 | +280.0% |
Based on 31 of 179 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 5 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -140.0% |
| Outside Zone | 26 | 26.9% | $-5.49 | -21.1% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 179 | 29.6% | +$9.31 | +5.2% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| bendigo | 10 | 40.0% | +$31.86 | +318.6% |
| sale | 14 | 57.1% | +$23.78 | +169.9% |
| caulfield | 37 | 32.4% | +$16.81 | +45.4% |
| ladbrokes geelong | 16 | 43.8% | +$5.40 | +33.8% |
| sportsbet sandown lakeside | 8 | 37.5% | +$1.20 | +15.0% |
| mornington | 15 | 20.0% | $-3.91 | -26.1% |
| bet365 park kilmore | 8 | 12.5% | $-5.00 | -62.5% |
| sportsbet sandown hillside | 9 | 11.1% | $-5.10 | -56.7% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 22 | 18.2% | $-12.06 | -54.8% |
| Wed | 45 | 35.6% | $-8.00 | -17.8% |
| Fri | 15 | 40.0% | $-1.38 | -9.2% |
| Sat | 89 | 24.7% | +$8.67 | +9.7% |
| Sun | 8 | 62.5% | +$22.08 | +276.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 25.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.98 (-49.5% ROI) on 4 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-04 | caulfield | Rue De Royale | 6.50 | +$16.80 |
| 2026-03-29 | sale | She Daresthe Devil | 4.80 | +$16.20 |
| 2026-05-02 | bendigo | Stoli Bolli | 5.50 | +$13.81 |
| 2026-04-04 | caulfield | Extragalactic | 4.40 | +$11.36 |
| 2026-05-02 | bendigo | Von Hauke | 11.00 | +$10.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-04 | caulfield | Thebelmontgangster | 1.80 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | ladbrokes geelong | Justique | 2.50 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-25 | flemington | First Chorus | 4.00 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-24 | picklebet park werribee | Morthan Efficient | 2.90 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-27 | caulfield heath | Harbour Town | 4.60 | $-3.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.