Ethan Mills

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (22 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 18.2% trails market-implied 26.9% by -8.8pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -19.9% — a more honest expectation than the raw -35.5%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +2.3% (-37.7% → -35.5%) · Shrunk ROI: +0.7% (-20.6% → -19.9%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

18.2%

Avg Odds

4.97

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-7.80

ROI

-35.5%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-19.9%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

26.9%

Calibration Gap

-8.8pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	22	$-7.80	-35.5%
Minus best 1 bet	21	$-13.80	-65.7%
Minus best 2 bets	20	$-15.60	-78.0%
Minus best 5 bets	17	$-17.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	14	14.3%	5.39	$-4.95	-35.4%
2026-07	8	25.0%	4.24	$-2.85	-35.6%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
2.0-3.0	6	50.0%	+$1.20	+20.0%
3.0-5.0	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
5.0-8.0	5	20.0%	+$2.00	+40.0%
8.0-15	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	12	25.0%	$-4.80	-40.0%
Rank 2	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	3	33.3%	+$4.00	+133.3%

Based on 22 of 22 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	20	20.0%	$-5.80	-29.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	22	18.2%	$-7.80	-35.5%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
bet365 bairnsdale	6	16.7%	+$1.00	+16.7%
southside pakenham synthetic	8	25.0%	$-2.85	-35.6%
sale	8	12.5%	$-5.95	-74.4%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	8	25.0%	$-2.85	-35.6%
Fri	6	16.7%	+$1.00	+16.7%
Sun	8	12.5%	$-5.95	-74.4%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 3 settled, place rate 0.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-3.00 (-100.0% ROI) on 3 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-12	bet365 bairnsdale	Nikephoros	7.00	+$6.00
2026-07-06	southside pakenham synthe	First Regent	2.80	+$1.80
2026-07-06	southside pakenham synthe	Shindy	2.35	+$1.35
2026-06-28	sale	Laura Eliza	2.05	+$1.05

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-28	sale	Missapprehend	3.70	$-1.00
2026-07-06	southside pakenham synthe	Duntulm Lass	3.70	$-1.00
2026-06-12	bet365 bairnsdale	Vegas On Fire	3.60	$-1.00
2026-06-28	sale	Urban Creed	2.15	$-1.00
2026-06-28	sale	Bourdeto	7.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.