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Ethan Mills
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (9 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 11.1% trails market-implied 35.0% by -23.9pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -23.6% — a more honest expectation than the raw -82.2%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -34.7% (-47.6% → -82.2%) · Shrunk ROI: +4.6% (-28.1% → -23.6%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-7.40
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-23.6%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
35.0%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
(insufficient data)
Recent trend
(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 7 | 14.3% | 4.22 | $-5.40 | -77.1% |
| 2026-08 | 2 | 0.0% | 2.73 | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 3 | 33.3% | $-1.40 | -46.7% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 5 | 20.0% | $-3.40 | -68.0% |
| Rank 3 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 9 of 9 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 7 | 14.3% | $-5.40 | -77.1% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 9 | 11.1% | $-7.40 | -82.2% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sale | 7 | 14.3% | $-5.40 | -77.1% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Fri | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Sun | 7 | 14.3% | $-5.40 | -77.1% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-26 | sale | Mainmankash | 1.60 | +$0.60 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-26 | sale | Princess Sakiko | 7.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-26 | sale | Rasp | 6.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | ladbrokes geelong | Omnic | 2.35 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-26 | sale | Avengers | 4.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-26 | sale | Humza Bey | 1.85 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.