Ethan Mills

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (8 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 25.0% trails market-implied 35.6% by -10.6pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

25.0%

Avg Odds

3.23

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-3.35

ROI

-41.9%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

35.6%

Calibration Gap

-10.6pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	8	25.0%	3.23	$-3.35	-41.9%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
2.0-3.0	3	66.7%	+$1.65	+55.0%
3.0-5.0	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	8	25.0%	$-3.35	-41.9%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
bet365 terang	8	25.0%	$-3.35	-41.9%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Sun	8	25.0%	$-3.35	-41.9%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-12	bet365 terang	Crank	2.60	+$1.60
2026-04-12	bet365 terang	Eleanor Dumont	2.05	+$1.05

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-12	bet365 terang	Papal Army	4.80	$-1.00
2026-04-12	bet365 terang	Atomova	4.80	$-1.00
2026-04-12	bet365 terang	Raikoke	3.10	$-1.00
2026-04-12	bet365 terang	Foujita San	4.20	$-1.00
2026-04-12	bet365 terang	Belle Flamme	2.70	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.