Scott McDonell

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (38 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 15.8% trails market-implied 35.9% by -20.1pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -35.1% — a more honest expectation than the raw -64.2%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +1.2% (-65.5% → -64.2%) · Shrunk ROI: +5.1% (-40.2% → -35.1%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

15.8%

Avg Odds

3.78

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-24.40

ROI

-64.2%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-35.1%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

35.9%

Calibration Gap

-20.1pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	38	$-24.40	-64.2%
Minus best 1 bet	37	$-27.40	-74.1%
Minus best 2 bets	36	$-29.00	-80.6%
Minus best 5 bets	33	$-31.65	-95.9%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-60.5%

Prior 60d ROI

-65.5%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	5	0.0%	3.24	$-5.00	-100.0%
2026-05	21	14.3%	4.29	$-13.30	-63.3%
2026-06	9	22.2%	3.39	$-5.70	-63.3%
2026-07	3	33.3%	2.35	$-0.40	-13.3%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	7	42.9%	$-2.35	-33.6%
2.0-3.0	10	20.0%	$-5.05	-50.5%
3.0-5.0	12	8.3%	$-8.00	-66.7%
5.0-8.0	8	0.0%	$-8.00	-100.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	8	12.5%	$-6.05	-75.6%
Rank 2	8	50.0%	+$2.30	+28.8%
Rank 3	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

Based on 22 of 38 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	21	23.8%	$-8.75	-41.7%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	38	15.8%	$-24.40	-64.2%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
townsville	7	14.3%	$-4.40	-62.9%
alice springs	7	14.3%	$-5.65	-80.7%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Tue	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Fri	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 6 settled, place rate 50.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-2.41 (-40.1% ROI) on 6 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-18	barcaldine	Call Out	4.00	+$3.00
2026-07-13	townsville	Prince Pier	2.60	+$1.60
2026-05-18	barcaldine	Little Cointreau	2.35	+$1.35
2026-06-12	darwin	Yule Point	1.95	+$0.95
2026-06-22	mackay	Better Blitzem	1.35	+$0.35

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-30	northam	Macho Arquero	3.10	$-1.00
2026-05-08	darwin	Rising Water	3.40	$-1.00
2026-06-18	geelong	Pray Tell	1.20	$-1.00
2026-05-08	stableline sky heights st	A Diva	1.95	$-1.00
2026-05-01	pakenham	Just Jenni	3.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.