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Scott McDonell
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (26 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 23.1% trails market-implied 31.2% by -8.1pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -63.1%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-29.6%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -24.4% — a more honest expectation than the raw -46.3%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +13.0% (-59.4% → -46.3%) · Shrunk ROI: +14.8% (-39.2% → -24.4%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-12.05
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-24.4%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
31.2%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 26 | $-12.05 | -46.3% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 25 | $-14.55 | -58.2% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 24 | $-16.55 | -69.0% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 21 | $-19.70 | -93.8% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 10 | 20.0% | 3.85 | $-4.40 | -44.0% |
| 2026-08 | 13 | 23.1% | 5.37 | $-8.15 | -62.7% |
| 2026-09 | 3 | 33.3% | 3.47 | +$0.50 | +16.7% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 2 | 100.0% | +$0.80 | +40.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 6 | 33.3% | $-1.35 | -22.5% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 12 | 16.7% | $-5.50 | -45.8% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 5 | 40.0% | $-0.50 | -10.0% |
| Rank 2 | 9 | 33.3% | $-1.60 | -17.8% |
| Rank 3 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 24 of 26 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 22 | 22.7% | $-10.10 | -45.9% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sportsbet_racing | 26 | 23.1% | $-12.05 | -46.3% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| townsville | 5 | 20.0% | $-2.40 | -48.0% |
| pakenham | 8 | 25.0% | $-4.45 | -55.6% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 2 | 50.0% | +$0.05 | +2.5% |
| Tue | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Sun | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 25.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-2.74 (-68.5% ROI) on 4 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-07 | tatura | Of The View | 3.50 | +$2.50 |
| 2026-07-16 | mackay | Got Gumption | 3.00 | +$2.00 |
| 2026-07-13 | townsville | Prince Pier | 2.60 | +$1.60 |
| 2026-08-08 | pakenham | Magnardo | 2.05 | +$1.05 |
| 2026-08-09 | pakenham | Magnardo | 1.50 | +$0.50 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-09 | pakenham | Peace Seeker | 4.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-24 | bundaberg | Desiah | 2.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-15 | pakenham | Lake Forest | 2.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-23 | pakenham | Flash Feeling | 23.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-16 | mackay | Sensei Girl | 9.50 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.