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Scott McDonell
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (32 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 18.8% trails market-implied 33.7% by -14.9pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-18.30
Implied Win % (1/odds)
33.7%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 32 | $-18.30 | -57.2% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 31 | $-21.30 | -68.7% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 30 | $-22.65 | -75.5% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 27 | $-25.65 | -95.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 7 | 42.9% | 3.27 | $-1.00 | -14.3% |
| 2026-04 | 7 | 0.0% | 3.63 | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-05 | 18 | 16.7% | 4.42 | $-10.30 | -57.2% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 5 | 40.0% | $-2.20 | -44.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 9 | 33.3% | $-2.10 | -23.3% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 10 | 10.0% | $-6.00 | -60.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 2 | 4 | 50.0% | +$2.35 | +58.8% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 8 of 32 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 7 | 28.6% | $-0.65 | -9.3% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sportsbet_racing | 32 | 18.8% | $-18.30 | -57.2% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| alice springs | 5 | 20.0% | $-3.65 | -73.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 3 settled, place rate 33.3%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.76 (-58.6% ROI) on 3 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-18 | barcaldine | Call Out | 4.00 | +$3.00 |
| 2026-03-12 | mount gambier | Drumlargen | 2.35 | +$1.35 |
| 2026-05-18 | barcaldine | Little Cointreau | 2.35 | +$1.35 |
| 2026-03-16 | kilcoy | Sir Memphis | 2.20 | +$1.20 |
| 2026-03-26 | cranbourne | Impulsive Reaction | 1.45 | +$0.45 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-08 | darwin | Rising Water | 3.40 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | stableline sky heights st | A Diva | 1.95 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | pakenham | Just Jenni | 3.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | pakenham | Olivia Rose | 3.90 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-29 | alice springs | Our Squamosa | 5.50 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.