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Matt Reid
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC
Verdict
BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Small sample (13 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 30.8% beats market-implied 26.7% by +4.1pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI +82.0%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-66.2%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-1.20
Implied Win % (1/odds)
26.7%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 13 | $-1.20 | -9.2% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 12 | $-3.90 | -32.5% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 11 | $-6.00 | -54.5% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 8 | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 7 | 14.3% | 9.40 | $-4.30 | -61.4% |
| 2026-04 | 1 | 0.0% | 12.00 | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-05 | 5 | 60.0% | 4.20 | +$4.10 | +82.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2.0-3.0 | 5 | 40.0% | +$0.00 | +0.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 3 | 66.7% | +$3.80 | +126.7% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 2 | 2 | 50.0% | +$1.10 | +55.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 3 of 13 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 3 | 33.3% | +$0.10 | +3.3% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 13 | 30.8% | $-1.20 | -9.2% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| launceston | 8 | 12.5% | $-5.30 | -66.2% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Fri | 8 | 12.5% | $-5.30 | -66.2% |
| Sun | 5 | 60.0% | +$4.10 | +82.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.00 (+100.0% ROI) on 1 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-02 | devonport | Tikken | 3.70 | +$2.70 |
| 2026-05-24 | hobart | Zewinna | 3.10 | +$2.10 |
| 2026-03-13 | launceston | Veins Within Rock | 2.70 | +$1.70 |
| 2026-05-02 | devonport | Lady Galadriel | 2.30 | +$1.30 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-26 | launceston | Favourite Deputy | 2.25 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-26 | launceston | Symphony Queen | 8.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-19 | launceston | Earendel | 6.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-19 | launceston | California Flyer | 2.15 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-13 | launceston | In The Ocean | 2.70 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.