Matt Reid

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (5 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 60.0% beats market-implied 28.8% by +31.2pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 117% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -23.3% on 3 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -4.4% — a more honest expectation than the raw +82.0%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +79.1% (+2.9% → +82.0%) · Shrunk ROI: +2.8% (-7.2% → -4.4%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → ROI MISLEADING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

60.0%

Avg Odds

4.20

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$4.10

ROI

+82.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-4.4%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

28.8%

Calibration Gap

+31.2pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-05	5	60.0%	4.20	+$4.10	+82.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
2.0-3.0	1	100.0%	+$1.30	+130.0%
3.0-5.0	3	66.7%	+$3.80	+126.7%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 2	2	50.0%	+$1.10	+55.0%
Rank 4-5	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 3 of 5 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	3	33.3%	+$0.10	+3.3%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	5	60.0%	+$4.10	+82.0%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Sun	5	60.0%	+$4.10	+82.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.00 (+100.0% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-02	devonport	Tikken	3.70	+$2.70
2026-05-24	hobart	Zewinna	3.10	+$2.10
2026-05-02	devonport	Lady Galadriel	2.30	+$1.30

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-24	hobart	Happy Clan	3.40	$-1.00
2026-05-24	hobart	Furneaux	8.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.