Matt Reid

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (18 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 22.2% trails market-implied 27.6% by -5.4pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -17.4% — a more honest expectation than the raw -29.4%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +0.6% (-30.0% → -29.4%) · Shrunk ROI: +0.8% (-18.2% → -17.4%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

22.2%

Avg Odds

4.75

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-5.30

ROI

-29.4%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-17.4%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

27.6%

Calibration Gap

-5.4pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	18	$-5.30	-29.4%
Minus best 1 bet	17	$-8.10	-47.6%
Minus best 2 bets	16	$-10.60	-66.2%
Minus best 5 bets	13	$-13.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-09	11	18.2%	5.09	$-4.70	-42.7%
2026-10	7	28.6%	4.23	$-0.60	-8.6%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
2.0-3.0	5	40.0%	+$0.40	+8.0%
3.0-5.0	9	22.2%	$-1.70	-18.9%
5.0-8.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	4	25.0%	$-1.20	-30.0%
Rank 2	7	42.9%	+$2.90	+41.4%
Rank 3	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

Based on 18 of 18 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	17	23.5%	$-4.30	-25.3%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	15	26.7%	$-2.30	-15.3%
sen_tips	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
launceston	18	22.2%	$-5.30	-29.4%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Wed	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Fri	15	26.7%	$-2.30	-15.3%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.33 (+33.3% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-10-02	launceston	Vortistar	3.80	+$2.80
2026-09-25	launceston	Henley Extreme	3.50	+$2.50
2026-09-25	launceston	Just Plain Nuts	2.80	+$1.80
2026-10-02	launceston	Little El	2.60	+$1.60

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-25	launceston	Benefitsofmine	3.20	$-1.00
2026-10-02	launceston	Roland View	4.40	$-1.00
2026-10-02	launceston	Thickskinned	2.20	$-1.00
2026-09-25	launceston	Sorell Eagles	12.00	$-1.00
2026-09-25	launceston	Johnnie Pinch	3.10	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.