Manish Pole

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-08-06 20:15 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (3 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 33.3% beats market-implied 6.3% by +27.0pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 112% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -100.0% on 1 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +2.8% — a more honest expectation than the raw +266.7%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: — · Shrunk ROI: —

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

33.3%

Avg Odds

18.00

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$8.00

ROI

+266.7%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

+2.8%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

6.3%

Calibration Gap

+27.0pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	3	33.3%	18.00	+$8.00	+266.7%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
8.0-15	1	100.0%	+$10.00	+1000.0%
15+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 4-5	1	100.0%	+$10.00	+1000.0%
Rank 6+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

Based on 3 of 3 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	3	33.3%	+$8.00	+266.7%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	3	33.3%	+$8.00	+266.7%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Wed	3	33.3%	+$8.00	+266.7%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 0.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.00 (-100.0% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-24	pinjarra scarpside	Hard Solo	11.00	+$10.00

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-24	pinjarra scarpside	Macho Arquero	27.00	$-1.00
2026-06-24	pinjarra scarpside	Rocking In Vegas	16.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-08-06 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.