Sky Racing - Darren McAullay

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 30.9% vs implied 32.5% (-1.6pp). Picks track market expectations.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

275

Wins

Win Rate

30.9%

Avg Odds

3.96

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-5.54

ROI

-2.0%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

32.5%

Calibration Gap

-1.6pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	275	$-5.54	-2.0%
Minus best 1 bet	274	$-17.04	-6.2%
Minus best 2 bets	273	$-24.04	-8.8%
Minus best 5 bets	270	$-42.24	-15.6%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-7.0%

Prior 60d ROI

-0.1%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	84	23.8%	4.04	$-18.48	-22.0%
2026-04	115	33.0%	3.49	+$18.28	+15.9%
2026-05	76	35.5%	4.56	$-5.34	-7.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	33	63.6%	+$3.38	+10.2%
2.0-3.0	81	32.1%	$-18.12	-22.4%
3.0-5.0	105	28.6%	+$7.10	+6.8%
5.0-8.0	40	15.0%	$-2.40	-6.0%
8.0-15	13	15.4%	+$7.50	+57.7%
15+	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	10	70.0%	+$4.87	+48.7%
Rank 2	9	0.0%	$-9.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	2	50.0%	+$5.40	+270.0%
Rank 6+	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

Based on 25 of 275 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	20	40.0%	+$2.27	+11.4%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	275	30.9%	$-5.54	-2.0%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
narrogin	6	50.0%	+$8.50	+141.7%
rockingham	6	50.0%	+$4.21	+70.2%
geraldton	29	27.6%	+$2.88	+9.9%
belmont	52	34.6%	+$1.93	+3.7%
northam	7	42.9%	+$1.85	+26.4%
ascot	107	29.9%	$-4.02	-3.8%
bunbury	8	12.5%	$-4.40	-55.0%
york	12	16.7%	$-6.92	-57.7%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
Wed	77	29.9%	+$1.59	+2.1%
Thu	51	27.5%	$-6.51	-12.8%
Fri	16	31.2%	+$0.38	+2.4%
Sat	95	33.7%	$-5.28	-5.6%
Sun	30	36.7%	+$10.28	+34.3%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 3 settled, place rate 66.7%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.95 (+31.8% ROI) on 3 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-22	ascot	Mandible Magic	12.50	+$11.50
2026-04-19	geraldton	Blue Lupin	8.00	+$7.00
2026-04-23	narrogin	Imapagethree Girl	7.40	+$6.40
2026-05-30	belmont	The Calabrese	7.40	+$6.40
2026-03-11	ascot	Roaming America	6.40	+$5.40

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-02	belmont	Sovereign Salute	4.40	$-1.00
2026-05-16	belmont	Here For Cheques	21.00	$-1.00
2026-04-30	geraldton	Deep Discretion	1.92	$-1.00
2026-05-13	pinjarra	Artistry In Motion	3.70	$-1.00
2026-04-09	geraldton	Leonardo Da Grey	2.46	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.