← Back to dashboard
Brent Zerafa
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 25.9% trails market-implied 29.7% by -3.8pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -43.9%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-13.9%) — trend is declining.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-55.22
Implied Win % (1/odds)
29.7%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 212 | $-55.22 | -26.0% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 211 | $-66.42 | -31.5% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 210 | $-76.42 | -36.4% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 207 | $-99.36 | -48.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 50 | 28.0% | 5.06 | $-14.40 | -28.8% |
| 2026-04 | 76 | 30.3% | 4.68 | $-3.10 | -4.1% |
| 2026-05 | 86 | 20.9% | 4.98 | $-37.72 | -43.9% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 25 | 56.0% | $-2.82 | -11.3% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 53 | 43.4% | +$15.00 | +28.3% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 64 | 20.3% | $-29.40 | -45.9% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 44 | 6.8% | $-28.00 | -63.6% |
| 8.0-15 | 17 | 11.8% | $-1.00 | -5.9% |
| 15+ | 9 | 0.0% | $-9.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 20 | 20.0% | $-18.02 | -90.1% |
| Rank 2 | 9 | 33.3% | +$4.20 | +46.7% |
| Rank 3 | 4 | 25.0% | $-0.10 | -2.5% |
| Rank 4-5 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 3 | 33.3% | +$8.00 | +266.7% |
Based on 40 of 212 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 35 | 25.7% | $-4.92 | -14.1% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 212 | 25.9% | $-55.22 | -26.0% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| ladbrokes geelong | 7 | 42.9% | +$11.00 | +157.1% |
| donald | 5 | 60.0% | +$5.90 | +118.0% |
| bet365 park kilmore | 15 | 26.7% | +$4.57 | +30.5% |
| warrnambool | 8 | 50.0% | +$2.60 | +32.5% |
| mornington | 17 | 35.3% | +$0.81 | +4.8% |
| avoca | 7 | 28.6% | $-0.22 | -3.1% |
| bet365 swan hill | 6 | 33.3% | $-1.40 | -23.3% |
| southside cranbourne | 6 | 33.3% | $-3.46 | -57.7% |
Worst venues
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| bendigo | 17 | 17.6% | $-5.80 | -34.1% |
| caulfield | 53 | 32.1% | $-6.19 | -11.7% |
| sportsbet sandown hillside | 9 | 0.0% | $-9.00 | -100.0% |
| caulfield heath | 8 | 0.0% | $-14.00 | -175.0% |
| flemington | 33 | 9.1% | $-30.70 | -93.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 8 | 50.0% | +$2.60 | +32.5% |
| Wed | 16 | 12.5% | $-15.80 | -98.8% |
| Fri | 21 | 23.8% | $-0.46 | -2.2% |
| Sat | 139 | 24.5% | $-41.16 | -29.6% |
| Sun | 28 | 35.7% | $-0.40 | -1.4% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 5 settled, place rate 80.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.92 (+18.3% ROI) on 5 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-04 | caulfield | Rue De Royale | 6.50 | +$11.20 |
| 2026-05-02 | bendigo | Von Hauke | 11.00 | +$10.00 |
| 2026-05-22 | ladbrokes geelong | Duel Venture | 11.00 | +$10.00 |
| 2026-04-04 | caulfield | Mukhtalif | 4.00 | +$7.00 |
| 2026-04-18 | mornington | The Speed Machine | 2.80 | +$5.94 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-02 | bendigo | Merrigold | 3.80 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-20 | caulfield heath | Delicate Lady | 4.20 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-02 | bendigo | Steel Run | 9.50 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-25 | flemington | Deal Done Fast | 3.60 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-11 | caulfield | Trapdoor | 3.10 | $-3.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.