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Brent Zerafa
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 24.3% trails market-implied 27.8% by -3.5pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -19.5%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-3.2%) — trend is declining.
Bio & context
Brent Zerafa is a presenter, journalist and form analyst with Racing.com (since 2016), where he appears on "Get On" and co-hosts the "Sectional Stars" podcast with Nic Ashman. He began his career as a cadet with the Daily/Sunday Telegraph in 2006, worked at TVN and Sky Racing, and has been providing publicly tracked tips since August 2019. His career was notably interrupted by a 2015 three-month suspension for conduct prejudicial to racing related to the Sam Kavanagh cobalt scandal.
VICRacing.com presenter, journalist & tipster19 yrs
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- 2015 conduct charge: Found guilty of conduct prejudicial to racing by Racing NSW stewards for tipping two horses on TVN while backing another (Palazzo Pubblico) based on inside information from John Camilleri regarding Sam Kavanagh-trained horse. Received three-month suspension. Stewards did not find deliberate 'throwing off' but cited failure to disclose conflict. This occurred in January 2015; suspended September 2015.
- Was stood down by Sky Racing (then employer) during the charges and lost that position
Methodology: Form analysis; developed expertise in Sydney racing during his Telegraph tenure. Provides mounting yard tips and race-by-race analysis on Racing.com platforms.
Specialty: Initially developed "expert eye for Sydney racing" during Telegraph years; now covers Victorian racing extensively from Racing.com base
Public footprint
- Racing.com shows: Get On, Sectional Stars podcast (with Nic Ashman)
- Twitter: @brentzerafa (active since 2009)
- Free tips published on Racing.com, tracked by TheGreatTipOff.com since August 1, 2019
- Podcast appearances: Stridyl podcast (2023)
- Board member: Young Professionals in Racing (YPR) as of 2024
Industry connections
- Father bred standardbred horses in Sydney's western suburbs (family background, not current conflict)
- Young Professionals in Racing board member (industry advocacy role)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-01
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -2.5% (-8.1% → -10.6%) · Shrunk ROI: -2.6% (-8.6% → -11.1%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-20.10
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-11.1%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
27.8%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 189 | $-20.10 | -10.6% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 188 | $-46.10 | -24.5% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 187 | $-52.10 | -27.9% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 184 | $-66.60 | -36.2% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 17 | 23.5% | 4.01 | $-7.05 | -41.5% |
| 2026-08 | 76 | 25.0% | 5.66 | +$10.40 | +13.7% |
| 2026-09 | 87 | 25.3% | 4.86 | $-17.75 | -20.4% |
| 2026-10 | 9 | 11.1% | 7.63 | $-5.70 | -63.3% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 14 | 71.4% | +$3.15 | +22.5% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 43 | 30.2% | $-12.55 | -29.2% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 63 | 23.8% | $-8.70 | -13.8% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 42 | 16.7% | $-2.00 | -4.8% |
| 8.0-15 | 19 | 0.0% | $-19.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 8 | 12.5% | +$19.00 | +237.5% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 87 | 34.5% | $-12.80 | -14.7% |
| Rank 2 | 34 | 32.4% | +$10.10 | +29.7% |
| Rank 3 | 21 | 4.8% | $-14.00 | -66.7% |
| Rank 4-5 | 29 | 10.3% | $-12.40 | -42.8% |
| Rank 6+ | 18 | 5.6% | +$9.00 | +50.0% |
Based on 189 of 189 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 23 | 21.7% | +$5.00 | +21.7% |
| Outside Zone | 166 | 24.7% | $-25.10 | -15.1% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 177 | 24.9% | $-16.70 | -9.4% |
| sen_tips | 12 | 16.7% | $-3.40 | -28.3% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| caulfield | 35 | 25.7% | +$16.90 | +48.3% |
| sportsbet sandown hillside | 8 | 50.0% | +$4.60 | +57.5% |
| ladbrokes geelong | 15 | 33.3% | +$4.25 | +28.3% |
| betdeluxe warracknabeal | 7 | 42.9% | +$3.80 | +54.3% |
| bet365 bairnsdale | 14 | 28.6% | +$1.50 | +10.7% |
| casterton | 7 | 28.6% | $-0.65 | -9.3% |
| donald | 7 | 14.3% | $-1.00 | -14.3% |
| bet365 echuca | 7 | 28.6% | $-1.35 | -19.3% |
Worst venues
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| picklebet park wodonga | 8 | 25.0% | $-4.65 | -58.1% |
| caulfield heath | 9 | 22.2% | $-4.70 | -52.2% |
| bet365 mildura | 13 | 23.1% | $-5.60 | -43.1% |
| sale | 8 | 12.5% | $-6.00 | -75.0% |
| flemington | 18 | 11.1% | $-13.20 | -73.3% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Tue | 36 | 22.2% | $-11.10 | -30.8% |
| Fri | 23 | 26.1% | $-1.75 | -7.6% |
| Sat | 110 | 22.7% | $-11.70 | -10.6% |
| Sun | 20 | 35.0% | +$4.45 | +22.2% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 12 settled, place rate 50.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.42 (-11.9% ROI) on 12 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-29 | caulfield | Kingswood | 27.00 | +$26.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | ladbrokes geelong | Greenwich Boy | 7.00 | +$6.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | donald | Philharmonic | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | betdeluxe warracknabeal | Surfy Pete | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | bet365 bairnsdale | Dismantle | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-01 | picklebet park wodonga | Victrix Swan | 2.05 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | flemington | Aeliana | 3.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | tatura | Asmita | 3.30 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | caulfield | Sass Appeal | 2.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | bet365 mildura | Razzo Rosso | 3.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.