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Sky Racing - Fred Hastings
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 34.6% trails market-implied 50.6% by -16.0pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-59.74
Implied Win % (1/odds)
50.6%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 188 | $-59.74 | -31.8% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 187 | $-63.74 | -34.1% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 186 | $-67.04 | -36.0% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 183 | $-75.74 | -41.4% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 76 | 34.2% | 2.42 | $-27.59 | -36.3% |
| 2026-04 | 49 | 38.8% | 2.86 | $-7.23 | -14.8% |
| 2026-05 | 63 | 31.7% | 2.20 | $-24.92 | -39.6% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 83 | 53.0% | $-19.88 | -24.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 53 | 22.6% | $-22.36 | -42.2% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 45 | 17.8% | $-15.50 | -34.4% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 5 | 20.0% | +$0.00 | +0.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 11 | 36.4% | $-4.19 | -38.1% |
| Rank 2 | 7 | 14.3% | $-5.95 | -85.0% |
| Rank 3 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 2 | 50.0% | $-0.03 | -1.5% |
Based on 22 of 188 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 22 | 27.3% | $-12.17 | -55.3% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sky_racing | 188 | 34.6% | $-59.74 | -31.8% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| bathurst | 18 | 22.2% | $-12.94 | -71.9% |
| penrith | 85 | 41.2% | $-15.09 | -17.8% |
| menangle | 85 | 30.6% | $-31.71 | -37.3% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Tue | 9 | 33.3% | $-1.75 | -19.4% |
| Wed | 8 | 12.5% | $-6.77 | -84.6% |
| Thu | 85 | 40.0% | $-11.32 | -13.3% |
| Fri | 16 | 25.0% | $-10.65 | -66.6% |
| Sat | 70 | 32.9% | $-29.25 | -41.8% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 3 settled, place rate 66.7%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.08 (-2.7% ROI) on 3 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-16 | penrith | Blackjack Bart | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-05-14 | menangle | Startin To Gogh | 4.30 | +$3.30 |
| 2026-03-03 | menangle | Affaire De Cover | 4.00 | +$3.00 |
| 2026-03-25 | penrith | Lookin Good Margie | 3.95 | +$2.95 |
| 2026-05-02 | menangle | Betterthancash | 3.75 | +$2.75 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-08 | bathurst | Absolute Weapon | 8.20 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | penrith | Onedins Crusade | 4.30 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | penrith | Hesaa Lister | 1.85 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-14 | menangle | Rocket Ralph | 2.34 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-08 | bathurst | Guarded Prognosis | 1.21 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.