Ben Walker

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 27.4% trails market-implied 36.7% by -9.3pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -23.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw -26.3%.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

164

Wins

Win Rate

27.4%

Avg Odds

4.24

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-43.11

ROI

-26.3%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-23.2%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

36.7%

Calibration Gap

-9.3pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	164	$-43.11	-26.3%
Minus best 1 bet	163	$-48.91	-30.0%
Minus best 2 bets	162	$-53.81	-33.2%
Minus best 5 bets	159	$-65.21	-41.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-21.6%

Prior 60d ROI

-28.5%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	46	32.6%	3.39	$-10.59	-23.0%
2026-08	65	23.1%	4.25	$-21.06	-32.4%
2026-09	38	26.3%	5.12	$-6.23	-16.4%
2026-10	15	33.3%	4.56	$-5.23	-34.9%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	30	50.0%	$-8.97	-29.9%
2.0-3.0	47	34.0%	$-7.64	-16.3%
3.0-5.0	47	23.4%	$-4.20	-8.9%
5.0-8.0	24	12.5%	$-6.30	-26.2%
8.0-15	13	0.0%	$-13.00	-100.0%
15+	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	70	34.3%	$-15.77	-22.5%
Rank 2	35	31.4%	+$2.00	+5.7%
Rank 3	15	20.0%	$-4.54	-30.3%
Rank 4-5	28	10.7%	$-14.28	-51.0%
Rank 6+	16	25.0%	$-10.52	-65.8%

Based on 164 of 164 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	9	11.1%	$-4.00	-44.4%
Outside Zone	155	28.4%	$-39.11	-25.2%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	164	27.4%	$-43.11	-26.3%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
bathurst	12	33.3%	+$2.26	+18.8%
gilgandra	5	40.0%	+$1.72	+34.4%
warren	6	50.0%	+$1.34	+22.3%
forbes	8	25.0%	$-0.48	-6.0%
coonabarabran	5	20.0%	$-1.20	-24.0%
mudgee	7	28.6%	$-1.56	-22.3%
scone	14	28.6%	$-3.79	-27.1%
cowra	6	33.3%	$-3.82	-63.7%

Worst venues

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
quirindi	6	16.7%	$-3.98	-66.3%
gunnedah	15	33.3%	$-5.45	-36.3%
tamworth	20	20.0%	$-5.47	-27.4%
narromine	14	14.3%	$-6.18	-44.1%
dubbo	39	28.2%	$-12.62	-32.4%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	60	26.7%	$-23.48	-39.1%
Tue	32	28.1%	$-8.62	-26.9%
Fri	18	22.2%	$-10.33	-57.4%
Sat	16	31.2%	$-3.30	-20.6%
Sun	38	28.9%	+$2.62	+6.9%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 17 settled, place rate 70.6%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.89 (+5.2% ROI) on 17 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-22	narromine	Shadow Dane	6.80	+$5.80
2026-09-12	bathurst	Jazz All Knight	5.90	+$4.90
2026-08-24	tamworth	Enniroc	5.00	+$4.00
2026-09-28	tamworth	Immortal Rose	4.80	+$3.80
2026-08-01	forbes	Voracious	4.60	+$3.60

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-24	coonabarabran	Pattera	4.20	$-1.00
2026-08-31	scone	Cassiere	3.00	$-1.00
2026-09-28	tamworth	Famahan	7.60	$-1.00
2026-08-31	scone	May The Force	4.20	$-1.00
2026-07-24	coonabarabran	Acquisitive Art	4.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.