← Back to dashboard

Best Bets

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC

Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Small sample (3 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 33.3% beats market-implied 28.4% by +5.0pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 150% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -100.0% on 1 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets
3
Wins
1
Win Rate
33.3%
Avg Odds
3.73
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$2.00
ROI
+66.7%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
28.4%
Calibration Gap
+5.0pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

MonthNWin %Avg OddsP/LROI
2026-03333.3%3.73+$2.00+66.7%

By odds bracket

OddsNWin %P/LROI
2.0-3.010.0%$-1.00-100.0%
3.0-5.010.0%$-1.00-100.0%
5.0-8.01100.0%+$4.00+400.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

SourceNWin %P/LROI
sportsbet_racing333.3%+$2.00+66.7%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

DateVenueSelectionOddsP/L
2026-03-06pakenhamCafe Au Lait5.00+$4.00

Biggest losses

DateVenueSelectionOddsP/L
2026-03-26cranbourneRudolfina3.40$-1.00
2026-03-26cranbourneCaffettiera2.80$-1.00
Generated 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.