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betfaircrickettrader
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-27 22:22 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Small sample (4 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 50.0% beats market-implied 35.9% by +14.1pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 671% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -100.0% on 2 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -11.4% — a more honest expectation than the raw +8.7%.
Since last weekly snapshot: +3 new bets · ROI: +108.8% (-100.0% → +8.7%) · Shrunk ROI: +3.3% (-14.7% → -11.4%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → ROI MISLEADING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$0.35
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-11.4%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
35.9%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
(insufficient data)
Recent trend
(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-09 | 4 | 50.0% | 3.02 | +$0.35 | +8.7% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2.0-3.0 | 2 | 100.0% | +$2.35 | +117.5% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 2 | 3 | 66.7% | +$1.35 | +45.0% |
Based on 4 of 4 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 4 | 50.0% | +$0.35 | +8.7% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| payload | 4 | 50.0% | +$0.35 | +8.7% |
By venue
(no venue data with sufficient samples)
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Thu | 1 | 100.0% | +$1.20 | +120.0% |
| Fri | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Sun | 2 | 50.0% | +$0.15 | +7.5% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-23 | | South Africa for | 2.20 | +$1.20 |
| 2026-09-26 | | South Africa for | 2.15 | +$1.15 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-20 | | Travis Head for | 3.75 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-17 | | Ben Curran for | 4.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-09-27 22:22 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.