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Chris Barsby
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC
Verdict
BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 43.0% trails market-implied 53.1% by -10.1pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI +11.6%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-27.8%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-6.98
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-9.9%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
53.1%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 86 | $-6.98 | -8.1% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 85 | $-11.38 | -13.4% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 84 | $-15.58 | -18.5% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 81 | $-26.23 | -32.4% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 19 | 31.6% | 2.76 | $-5.07 | -26.7% |
| 2026-08 | 47 | 46.8% | 2.43 | +$3.74 | +8.0% |
| 2026-09 | 20 | 45.0% | 2.48 | $-5.65 | -28.2% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 40 | 60.0% | $-4.66 | -11.7% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 18 | 38.9% | $-1.72 | -9.6% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 22 | 13.6% | $-10.40 | -47.3% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 6 | 50.0% | +$9.80 | +163.3% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 30 | 53.3% | $-2.96 | -9.9% |
| Rank 2 | 27 | 37.0% | $-5.81 | -21.5% |
| Rank 3 | 12 | 25.0% | $-1.09 | -9.1% |
| Rank 4-5 | 11 | 63.6% | +$7.87 | +71.5% |
| Rank 6+ | 6 | 16.7% | $-4.99 | -83.2% |
Based on 86 of 86 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 2 | 50.0% | +$3.20 | +160.0% |
| Outside Zone | 84 | 42.9% | $-10.18 | -12.1% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sky_racing | 86 | 43.0% | $-6.98 | -8.1% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| redcliffe | 39 | 48.7% | +$3.96 | +10.2% |
| albion park | 47 | 38.3% | $-10.94 | -23.3% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 9 | 33.3% | $-1.34 | -14.9% |
| Tue | 13 | 46.2% | +$2.46 | +18.9% |
| Thu | 16 | 50.0% | $-3.52 | -22.0% |
| Fri | 32 | 43.8% | +$2.14 | +6.7% |
| Sat | 16 | 37.5% | $-6.72 | -42.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 5 settled, place rate 20.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-3.74 (-74.8% ROI) on 5 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-13 | albion park | Crookwell Eyes | 5.40 | +$4.40 |
| 2026-08-27 | redcliffe | Cedar Creek Falls | 5.20 | +$4.20 |
| 2026-08-20 | redcliffe | Three Machs | 5.20 | +$4.20 |
| 2026-07-20 | albion park | Maywyn Son Of Lou | 4.70 | +$3.70 |
| 2026-08-03 | redcliffe | Candykane | 3.75 | +$2.75 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-20 | redcliffe | Well Said Nugget | 3.85 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | albion park | Love Gun | 5.20 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | redcliffe | Major Crunch | 1.01 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | albion park | Treacherous Belle | 5.40 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | redcliffe | Little Hoofananny | 1.01 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.