Colin Hodges

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 16.7% trails market-implied 28.9% by -12.2pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -39.6% — a more honest expectation than the raw -51.2%.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

114

Wins

Win Rate

16.7%

Avg Odds

5.05

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-58.39

ROI

-51.2%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-39.6%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

28.9%

Calibration Gap

-12.2pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	114	$-58.39	-51.2%
Minus best 1 bet	113	$-64.79	-57.3%
Minus best 2 bets	112	$-69.39	-62.0%
Minus best 5 bets	109	$-78.39	-71.9%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-53.5%

Prior 60d ROI

-50.3%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	37	16.2%	4.49	$-25.49	-68.9%
2026-08	38	18.4%	5.20	$-11.67	-30.7%
2026-09	27	18.5%	4.65	$-10.84	-40.1%
2026-10	12	8.3%	7.16	$-10.39	-86.6%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	11	54.5%	$-1.95	-17.7%
2.0-3.0	21	28.6%	$-6.74	-32.1%
3.0-5.0	36	13.9%	$-16.70	-46.4%
5.0-8.0	28	7.1%	$-15.00	-53.6%
8.0-15	16	0.0%	$-16.00	-100.0%
15+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	34	35.3%	$-3.95	-11.6%
Rank 2	21	14.3%	$-10.62	-50.6%
Rank 3	16	6.2%	$-10.40	-65.0%
Rank 4-5	28	3.6%	$-26.98	-96.4%
Rank 6+	15	13.3%	$-6.44	-42.9%

Based on 114 of 114 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	9	11.1%	$-3.40	-37.8%
Outside Zone	105	17.1%	$-54.99	-52.4%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	114	16.7%	$-58.39	-51.2%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
warren	7	42.9%	+$0.34	+4.9%
mudgee	7	28.6%	+$0.02	+0.3%
cowra	5	40.0%	$-2.82	-56.4%
narromine	16	12.5%	$-3.00	-18.8%
coonabarabran	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
gilgandra	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
bathurst	18	22.2%	$-6.00	-33.3%
orange	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	36	13.9%	$-25.28	-70.2%
Tue	13	23.1%	$-5.66	-43.5%
Thu	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
Fri	6	16.7%	$-4.39	-73.2%
Sat	15	13.3%	$-12.82	-85.5%
Sun	38	21.1%	$-4.24	-11.2%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 11 settled, place rate 45.5%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-3.45 (-31.3% ROI) on 11 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-22	narromine	Shadow Dane	7.40	+$6.40
2026-08-22	narromine	Honey Slider	5.60	+$4.60
2026-08-29	mudgee	Tamieka Warrior	4.40	+$3.40
2026-07-20	warren	Nothing Finer	3.80	+$2.80
2026-09-12	bathurst	Western Warrior	3.80	+$2.80

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-22	narromine	Denman Force	9.40	$-1.00
2026-10-01	dubbo	Fetes Des Meres	5.50	$-1.00
2026-08-02	forbes	Strassman	8.80	$-1.00
2026-08-02	forbes	Regalade	2.96	$-1.00
2026-08-16	bathurst	Flywire	5.60	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.