Dan Mielicki

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (42 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 23.8% trails market-implied 40.3% by -16.5pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -29.7% — a more honest expectation than the raw -49.6%.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

23.8%

Avg Odds

3.68

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-20.83

ROI

-49.6%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-29.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

40.3%

Calibration Gap

-16.5pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	42	$-20.83	-49.6%
Minus best 1 bet	41	$-24.13	-58.9%
Minus best 2 bets	40	$-26.48	-66.2%
Minus best 5 bets	37	$-29.89	-80.8%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-47.7%

Prior 60d ROI

-52.8%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	1	0.0%	1.42	$-1.00	-100.0%
2026-08	15	33.3%	3.70	$-7.44	-49.6%
2026-09	16	25.0%	3.60	$-4.26	-26.6%
2026-10	10	10.0%	4.01	$-8.13	-81.3%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	14	42.9%	$-5.02	-35.9%
2.0-3.0	9	22.2%	$-4.46	-49.6%
3.0-5.0	9	22.2%	$-1.35	-15.0%
5.0-8.0	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	23	34.8%	$-9.48	-41.2%
Rank 2	7	28.6%	+$0.65	+9.3%
Rank 3	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%

Based on 42 of 42 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	41	24.4%	$-19.83	-48.4%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	42	23.8%	$-20.83	-49.6%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
cranbourne	8	37.5%	+$0.39	+4.9%
geelong	8	12.5%	$-4.65	-58.1%
ballarat	10	10.0%	$-8.13	-81.3%
melton	16	31.2%	$-8.44	-52.8%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Wed	8	25.0%	$-4.98	-62.3%
Thu	10	10.0%	$-8.13	-81.3%
Fri	8	12.5%	$-4.65	-58.1%
Sat	8	37.5%	$-3.46	-43.2%
Sun	8	37.5%	+$0.39	+4.9%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 0.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-2.00 (-100.0% ROI) on 2 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-13	cranbourne	Platinum Jive	4.30	+$3.30
2026-09-11	geelong	My Uncle Stan	3.35	+$2.35
2026-09-13	cranbourne	Le Gaston	2.42	+$1.42
2026-08-01	melton	The Art Of Success	2.12	+$1.12
2026-10-01	ballarat	Glenline	1.87	+$0.87

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-01	melton	Miss Muscle	2.98	$-1.00
2026-09-11	geelong	Dichotomy	8.40	$-1.00
2026-09-13	cranbourne	Jilliby Stranger	1.47	$-1.00
2026-09-13	cranbourne	Joe Lou	2.24	$-1.00
2026-09-13	cranbourne	Keayang Maricruz	1.97	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.