Dan Missen

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 27.5% trails market-implied 41.9% by -14.4pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -26.9% — a more honest expectation than the raw -32.2%.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

131

Wins

Win Rate

27.5%

Avg Odds

3.16

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-42.21

ROI

-32.2%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-26.9%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

41.9%

Calibration Gap

-14.4pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	131	$-42.21	-32.2%
Minus best 1 bet	130	$-48.81	-37.5%
Minus best 2 bets	129	$-52.51	-40.7%
Minus best 5 bets	126	$-62.16	-49.3%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-36.2%

Prior 60d ROI

-30.3%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	29	37.9%	2.59	$-2.60	-9.0%
2026-08	51	21.6%	3.31	$-23.38	-45.8%
2026-09	44	22.7%	3.34	$-16.89	-38.4%
2026-10	7	57.1%	3.24	+$0.66	+9.4%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	44	43.2%	$-14.45	-32.8%
2.0-3.0	31	29.0%	$-6.66	-21.5%
3.0-5.0	38	18.4%	$-10.70	-28.2%
5.0-8.0	16	6.2%	$-8.40	-52.5%
8.0-15	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	71	33.8%	$-22.52	-31.7%
Rank 2	29	27.6%	$-9.69	-33.4%
Rank 3	10	10.0%	$-5.30	-53.0%
Rank 4-5	14	14.3%	$-2.10	-15.0%
Rank 6+	7	14.3%	$-2.60	-37.1%

Based on 131 of 131 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	128	28.1%	$-39.21	-30.6%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	131	27.5%	$-42.21	-32.2%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
moree	10	30.0%	$-2.65	-26.5%
quirindi	6	16.7%	$-4.01	-66.8%
muswellbrook	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
gunnedah	8	12.5%	$-6.98	-87.2%
tamworth	70	32.9%	$-11.52	-16.5%
newcastle	32	25.0%	$-12.05	-37.7%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	12	8.3%	$-10.22	-85.2%
Tue	13	30.8%	$-2.12	-16.3%
Thu	45	35.6%	$-4.40	-9.8%
Fri	48	25.0%	$-19.82	-41.3%
Sun	13	23.1%	$-5.65	-43.5%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 7 settled, place rate 57.1%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$476.01 (+6800.1% ROI) on 7 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-18	newcastle	Vincentius Maximus	7.60	+$6.60
2026-08-20	tamworth	Arnies Army	4.70	+$3.70
2026-07-23	tamworth	Gotonebettor	4.40	+$3.40
2026-08-20	tamworth	Johnny Dee	4.30	+$3.30
2026-07-23	tamworth	Lachies Ideal	3.95	+$2.95

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-30	tamworth	Coogee	3.15	$-1.00
2026-09-10	tamworth	Rippin Good Feelin	1.47	$-1.00
2026-10-07	tamworth	Mister Cheese	2.24	$-1.00
2026-08-13	gunnedah	Ray Del Norte	6.20	$-1.00
2026-07-23	tamworth	Sweet Rocky	2.34	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.