Duncan Dornauf

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 27.3% trails market-implied 35.6% by -8.2pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -24.7% — a more honest expectation than the raw -28.4%.

Since last weekly snapshot: +153 new bets · ROI: +31.6% (-60.0% → -28.4%) · Shrunk ROI: -5.2% (-19.5% → -24.7%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

161

Wins

Win Rate

27.3%

Avg Odds

3.64

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-45.67

ROI

-28.4%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-24.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

35.6%

Calibration Gap

-8.2pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	161	$-45.67	-28.4%
Minus best 1 bet	160	$-50.87	-31.8%
Minus best 2 bets	159	$-55.07	-34.6%
Minus best 5 bets	156	$-64.47	-41.3%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-22.9%

Prior 60d ROI

-32.4%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	28	32.1%	3.63	$-5.92	-21.1%
2026-08	59	25.4%	3.19	$-24.98	-42.3%
2026-09	51	31.4%	3.90	$-1.77	-3.5%
2026-10	23	17.4%	4.21	$-13.00	-56.5%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	26	57.7%	$-3.31	-12.7%
2.0-3.0	47	27.7%	$-15.66	-33.3%
3.0-5.0	52	26.9%	$-2.10	-4.0%
5.0-8.0	33	6.1%	$-21.60	-65.5%
8.0-15	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	65	41.5%	$-6.76	-10.4%
Rank 2	45	28.9%	$-6.26	-13.9%
Rank 3	20	10.0%	$-13.05	-65.3%
Rank 4-5	25	8.0%	$-13.60	-54.4%
Rank 6+	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%

Based on 161 of 161 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	10	0.0%	$-10.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	151	29.1%	$-35.67	-23.6%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	145	29.0%	$-34.82	-24.0%
racing_com	16	12.5%	$-10.85	-67.8%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hobart	21	23.8%	$-3.18	-15.1%
devonport	39	28.2%	$-10.97	-28.1%
launceston	101	27.7%	$-31.52	-31.2%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Wed	47	23.4%	$-14.24	-30.3%
Fri	46	23.9%	$-18.91	-41.1%
Sat	8	12.5%	$-6.70	-83.8%
Sun	60	35.0%	$-5.82	-9.7%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 13 settled, place rate 92.3%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$8.99 (+74.9% ROI) on 12 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-12	launceston	Tambros Tilly	6.20	+$5.20
2026-07-18	hobart	John Of Jane	5.20	+$4.20
2026-09-08	devonport	Glory Mission	4.50	+$3.50
2026-10-03	launceston	Miki Sanz	3.95	+$2.95
2026-09-08	devonport	Out Of The Sphere	3.95	+$2.95

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-01	launceston	Muzzame Mate	2.74	$-1.00
2026-08-22	launceston	Watch Your Back	4.30	$-1.00
2026-09-25	launceston	Geegees Mercedes	5.50	$-1.00
2026-08-01	launceston	Glenview Lanikai	2.14	$-1.00
2026-09-26	launceston	Bellas Angel	4.70	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.