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Fred Hastings
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 30.3% trails market-implied 44.9% by -14.6pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -25.7% — a more honest expectation than the raw -30.5%.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-40.30
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-25.7%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
44.9%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 132 | $-40.30 | -30.5% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 131 | $-45.00 | -34.4% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 130 | $-49.20 | -37.8% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 127 | $-58.90 | -46.4% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 31 | 35.5% | 2.57 | $-2.90 | -9.4% |
| 2026-08 | 32 | 15.6% | 2.96 | $-20.65 | -64.5% |
| 2026-09 | 50 | 38.0% | 2.66 | $-15.99 | -32.0% |
| 2026-10 | 19 | 26.3% | 3.28 | $-0.76 | -4.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 55 | 43.6% | $-17.60 | -32.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 31 | 22.6% | $-14.70 | -47.4% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 34 | 20.6% | $-6.90 | -20.3% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 11 | 18.2% | $-0.10 | -0.9% |
| 8.0-15 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 72 | 34.7% | $-31.44 | -43.7% |
| Rank 2 | 30 | 30.0% | $-3.60 | -12.0% |
| Rank 3 | 18 | 33.3% | +$6.74 | +37.4% |
| Rank 4-5 | 9 | 0.0% | $-9.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 132 of 132 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 4 | 50.0% | +$6.90 | +172.5% |
| Outside Zone | 128 | 29.7% | $-47.20 | -36.9% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sky_racing | 132 | 30.3% | $-40.30 | -30.5% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| menangle | 70 | 38.6% | $-18.88 | -27.0% |
| penrith | 62 | 21.0% | $-21.42 | -34.5% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Tue | 16 | 18.8% | $-11.12 | -69.5% |
| Thu | 62 | 21.0% | $-21.42 | -34.5% |
| Sat | 54 | 44.4% | $-7.76 | -14.4% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 8 settled, place rate 75.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.25 (+3.1% ROI) on 8 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-10-07 | penrith | Louthparkschooner | 5.70 | +$4.70 |
| 2026-10-07 | penrith | Bev The Goat | 5.20 | +$4.20 |
| 2026-07-11 | menangle | The Metal Flyer | 4.30 | +$3.30 |
| 2026-07-25 | menangle | Cormoran Strike | 4.30 | +$3.30 |
| 2026-09-10 | penrith | Bev The Goat | 4.10 | +$3.10 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-06 | penrith | Zen Master | 3.65 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | menangle | Lexus Lou | 1.27 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-30 | penrith | Whitbys Delight | 1.62 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | menangle | Agentofgoodintent | 4.10 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-17 | penrith | Heidsieck | 3.15 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.