Gary Kliese

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 29.5% trails market-implied 32.6% by -3.2pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -0.8%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-24.9%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

146

Wins

Win Rate

29.5%

Avg Odds

3.90

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-24.26

ROI

-16.6%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-15.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

32.6%

Calibration Gap

-3.2pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	146	$-24.26	-16.6%
Minus best 1 bet	145	$-31.26	-21.6%
Minus best 2 bets	144	$-35.46	-24.6%
Minus best 5 bets	141	$-45.96	-32.6%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-0.8%

Prior 60d ROI

-24.9%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	45	35.6%	4.02	$-5.01	-11.1%
2026-08	43	25.6%	3.78	$-15.75	-36.6%
2026-09	52	26.9%	3.75	$-4.74	-9.1%
2026-10	6	33.3%	5.11	+$1.24	+20.7%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	19	57.9%	$-0.40	-2.1%
2.0-3.0	46	45.7%	+$8.64	+18.8%
3.0-5.0	46	19.6%	$-10.70	-23.3%
5.0-8.0	26	3.8%	$-20.80	-80.0%
8.0-15	9	11.1%	$-1.00	-11.1%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	70	42.9%	+$1.58	+2.3%
Rank 2	37	24.3%	$-8.14	-22.0%
Rank 3	21	14.3%	$-7.70	-36.7%
Rank 4-5	11	0.0%	$-11.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	7	14.3%	+$1.00	+14.3%

Based on 146 of 146 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	17	5.9%	$-11.80	-69.4%
Outside Zone	129	32.6%	$-12.46	-9.7%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	146	29.5%	$-24.26	-16.6%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
armidale	6	33.3%	+$4.98	+83.0%
port macquarie	7	42.9%	+$0.58	+8.3%
tuncurry	14	35.7%	$-0.25	-1.8%
ballina	13	30.8%	$-0.56	-4.3%
murwillumbah	8	37.5%	$-1.86	-23.2%
coffs harbour	21	23.8%	$-2.80	-13.3%
taree	7	28.6%	$-2.81	-40.1%
lismore	13	7.7%	$-10.18	-78.3%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	26	26.9%	$-8.00	-30.8%
Tue	14	21.4%	$-5.88	-42.0%
Wed	8	12.5%	$-6.14	-76.8%
Thu	22	31.8%	$-1.55	-7.0%
Fri	45	33.3%	$-7.99	-17.8%
Sun	31	32.3%	+$5.30	+17.1%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 10 settled, place rate 40.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-4.27 (-42.7% ROI) on 10 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-19	armidale	Tralee	8.00	+$7.00
2026-10-04	ballina	So Sain	5.20	+$4.20
2026-09-02	coffs harbour	Sunset Adios	4.90	+$3.90
2026-09-12	coffs harbour	Venom Wolf	4.60	+$3.60
2026-07-15	grafton	Tough Guy	4.00	+$3.00

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-15	grafton	Ocean Alps	9.60	$-1.00
2026-08-11	ballina	Triple Time	2.76	$-1.00
2026-09-06	grafton	Copenhagen Cat	9.60	$-1.00
2026-09-12	coffs harbour	Who Loves A Harley	6.80	$-1.00
2026-09-09	lismore	Warrior Bae	3.20	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.