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Jarrod Wessel
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (7 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 14.3% trails market-implied 28.9% by -14.6pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -16.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw -40.0%.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-2.80
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-16.3%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
28.9%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
(insufficient data)
Recent trend
(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-10 | 7 | 14.3% | 3.86 | $-2.80 | -40.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2.0-3.0 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 4 | 25.0% | +$0.20 | +5.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 5 | 20.0% | $-0.80 | -16.0% |
| Rank 2 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 7 of 7 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 7 | 14.3% | $-2.80 | -40.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 7 | 14.3% | $-2.80 | -40.0% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sportsbet port lincoln | 7 | 14.3% | $-2.80 | -40.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Sun | 7 | 14.3% | $-2.80 | -40.0% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-10-04 | sportsbet port lincoln | Charlesfort | 4.20 | +$3.20 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-10-04 | sportsbet port lincoln | In Your Words | 3.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | sportsbet port lincoln | Raikoke | 2.30 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | sportsbet port lincoln | Lake Agawam | 2.70 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | sportsbet port lincoln | Go Ask Alice | 3.90 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | sportsbet port lincoln | Charka | 7.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.