Lizzie Jelfs

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (4 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 50.0% vs implied 49.3% (+0.7pp). Picks track market expectations.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

50.0%

Avg Odds

3.17

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-1.15

ROI

-28.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

49.3%

Calibration Gap

+0.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	4	50.0%	3.17	$-1.15	-28.7%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	2	100.0%	+$0.85	+42.5%
2.0-3.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
5.0-8.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	4	50.0%	$-1.15	-28.7%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Sat	4	50.0%	$-1.15	-28.7%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-20	rosehill	Aeliana	1.55	+$0.55
2026-03-20	rosehill	Autumn Glow	1.30	+$0.30

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-20	rosehill	Streisand	7.50	$-1.00
2026-03-20	rosehill	Observer	2.35	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.