Matt Robertson

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (44 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 31.8% trails market-implied 52.0% by -20.2pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -5.8%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-32.0%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -18.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw -24.3%.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

31.8%

Avg Odds

2.43

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-10.68

ROI

-24.3%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-18.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

52.0%

Calibration Gap

-20.2pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	44	$-10.68	-24.3%
Minus best 1 bet	43	$-13.63	-31.7%
Minus best 2 bets	42	$-16.48	-39.2%
Minus best 5 bets	39	$-23.43	-60.1%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-5.8%

Prior 60d ROI

-32.0%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	17	41.2%	2.36	$-2.60	-15.3%
2026-08	14	21.4%	1.80	$-7.32	-52.3%
2026-09	7	42.9%	3.35	+$1.29	+18.4%
2026-10	6	16.7%	3.00	$-2.05	-34.2%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	16	31.2%	$-9.15	-57.2%
2.0-3.0	12	33.3%	$-3.28	-27.3%
3.0-5.0	15	33.3%	+$2.75	+18.3%
5.0-8.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	17	41.2%	$-3.88	-22.8%
Rank 2	15	20.0%	$-4.15	-27.7%
Rank 3	9	33.3%	$-0.97	-10.8%
Rank 4-5	2	50.0%	$-0.68	-34.0%
Rank 6+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 44 of 44 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	43	32.6%	$-9.68	-22.5%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	44	31.8%	$-10.68	-24.3%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
launceston	9	33.3%	$-2.98	-33.1%
hobart	35	31.4%	$-7.70	-22.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Fri	20	20.0%	$-7.76	-38.8%
Sun	24	41.7%	$-2.92	-12.2%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 25.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-2.68 (-67.1% ROI) on 4 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-10-01	hobart	Tappy	3.95	+$2.95
2026-09-10	hobart	Sapphire Gambler	3.85	+$2.85
2026-08-08	hobart	My Fatal Charm	3.45	+$2.45
2026-07-18	launceston	Cominski Leis	3.45	+$2.45
2026-07-11	hobart	Eye See Amour	3.05	+$2.05

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-08	hobart	Estella Herge	2.04	$-1.00
2026-10-01	hobart	Ultimate Gladiator	2.44	$-1.00
2026-08-20	hobart	Rose Noire	1.01	$-1.00
2026-08-20	hobart	Merrywood Paul	1.01	$-1.00
2026-07-11	hobart	Everything But The	2.20	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.