Michael Charge

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 25.0% trails market-implied 30.7% by -5.7pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

216

Wins

Win Rate

25.0%

Avg Odds

5.10

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-33.75

ROI

-15.6%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-15.1%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

30.7%

Calibration Gap

-5.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	216	$-33.75	-15.6%
Minus best 1 bet	215	$-43.75	-20.3%
Minus best 2 bets	214	$-52.15	-24.4%
Minus best 5 bets	211	$-70.35	-33.3%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-9.6%

Prior 60d ROI

-18.7%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	72	19.4%	4.60	$-20.43	-28.4%
2026-08	65	27.7%	5.58	$-0.30	-0.5%
2026-09	66	28.8%	4.80	$-11.04	-16.7%
2026-10	13	23.1%	7.07	$-1.98	-15.2%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	33	45.5%	$-8.64	-26.2%
2.0-3.0	40	37.5%	$-2.96	-7.4%
3.0-5.0	63	23.8%	$-4.55	-7.2%
5.0-8.0	46	13.0%	$-12.40	-27.0%
8.0-15	25	12.0%	+$3.80	+15.2%
15+	9	0.0%	$-9.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	74	41.9%	$-6.53	-8.8%
Rank 2	40	12.5%	$-23.54	-58.9%
Rank 3	37	24.3%	+$1.92	+5.2%
Rank 4-5	35	20.0%	+$4.00	+11.4%
Rank 6+	30	6.7%	$-9.60	-32.0%

Based on 216 of 216 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	23	8.7%	$-12.40	-53.9%
Outside Zone	193	26.9%	$-21.35	-11.1%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	216	25.0%	$-33.75	-15.6%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sunshine coast	7	57.1%	+$5.02	+71.7%
emerald	10	50.0%	+$3.37	+33.7%
ewan	7	28.6%	+$2.20	+31.4%
rockhampton	39	25.6%	+$0.56	+1.4%
bowen	7	28.6%	+$0.08	+1.1%
blackall	8	25.0%	+$0.02	+0.2%
eagle farm	7	28.6%	$-0.77	-11.0%
cairns	28	21.4%	$-3.48	-12.4%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	21	23.8%	$-4.85	-23.1%
Tue	44	27.3%	$-6.71	-15.3%
Wed	7	28.6%	$-0.77	-11.0%
Thu	29	10.3%	$-21.48	-74.1%
Fri	39	33.3%	+$8.98	+23.0%
Sat	58	22.4%	$-13.04	-22.5%
Sun	18	33.3%	+$4.12	+22.9%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 17 settled, place rate 82.4%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$6.97 (+41.0% ROI) on 17 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-25	rockhampton	Outwitted	11.00	+$10.00
2026-08-21	cairns	Nolan	9.40	+$8.40
2026-07-17	mackay	Journalism	8.40	+$7.40
2026-07-31	townsville	Aged Care	7.00	+$6.00
2026-09-27	sunshine coast	Bring Me Kash	5.80	+$4.80

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-31	townsville	Intruder	4.70	$-1.00
2026-07-31	townsville	Just A Duchess	6.40	$-1.00
2026-08-07	townsville	Quothquan	7.20	$-1.00
2026-09-11	mackay	Supid Date	1.75	$-1.00
2026-10-02	rockhampton	Varejao	3.05	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.