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Richard Bell
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-04 22:17 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Small sample (6 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 50.0% beats market-implied 31.0% by +19.0pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 118% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -22.5% on 4 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -2.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw +85.0%.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$5.10
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-2.5%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
31.0%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
(insufficient data)
Recent trend
(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-10 | 6 | 50.0% | 3.63 | +$5.10 | +85.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 4 | 75.0% | +$7.10 | +177.5% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 2 | 50.0% | +$1.10 | +55.0% |
| Rank 2 | 3 | 66.7% | +$5.00 | +166.7% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 6 of 6 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 5 | 60.0% | +$6.10 | +122.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 6 | 50.0% | +$5.10 | +85.0% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| northam | 6 | 50.0% | +$5.10 | +85.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Sun | 6 | 50.0% | +$5.10 | +85.0% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-10-04 | northam | Javelin Strike | 4.20 | +$3.20 |
| 2026-10-04 | northam | Firearm | 3.80 | +$2.80 |
| 2026-10-04 | northam | Miss Profligacy | 3.10 | +$2.10 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-10-04 | northam | Special Blend | 1.70 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | northam | Thangoo | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | northam | Vancouver Storm | 4.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-04 22:17 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.