Richard Bell

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (7 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 14.3% trails market-implied 26.1% by -11.8pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

14.3%

Avg Odds

4.48

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-4.10

ROI

-58.6%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

26.1%

Calibration Gap

-11.8pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	7	14.3%	4.48	$-4.10	-58.6%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
2.0-3.0	1	100.0%	+$1.90	+190.0%
3.0-5.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
5.0-8.0	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	7	14.3%	$-4.10	-58.6%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
york	7	14.3%	$-4.10	-58.6%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Sun	7	14.3%	$-4.10	-58.6%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-15	york	Scream	2.90	+$1.90

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-15	york	October Rox	4.00	$-1.00
2026-03-15	york	Sky River	5.00	$-1.00
2026-03-15	york	Miss Wall Street	6.00	$-1.00
2026-03-15	york	Gold Enigma	1.95	$-1.00
2026-03-15	york	Pretty Devine	6.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.