Rod Fuller

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 25.2% trails market-implied 37.2% by -11.9pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

103

Wins

Win Rate

25.2%

Avg Odds

3.29

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-17.73

ROI

-17.2%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-15.8%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

37.2%

Calibration Gap

-11.9pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	103	$-17.73	-17.2%
Minus best 1 bet	102	$-25.53	-25.0%
Minus best 2 bets	101	$-30.73	-30.4%
Minus best 5 bets	98	$-42.33	-43.2%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-14.6%

Prior 60d ROI

-20.0%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	24	33.3%	3.35	$-1.65	-6.9%
2026-08	26	23.1%	3.01	$-8.36	-32.2%
2026-09	53	22.6%	3.41	$-7.72	-14.6%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	18	38.9%	$-4.46	-24.8%
2.0-3.0	32	25.0%	$-11.84	-37.0%
3.0-5.0	41	22.0%	$-4.43	-10.8%
5.0-8.0	11	9.1%	$-4.80	-43.6%
8.0-15	1	100.0%	+$7.80	+780.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	49	26.5%	$-15.59	-31.8%
Rank 2	24	25.0%	$-3.77	-15.7%
Rank 3	18	16.7%	$-8.79	-48.8%
Rank 4-5	8	37.5%	+$9.52	+119.0%
Rank 6+	4	25.0%	+$0.90	+22.5%

Based on 103 of 103 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	97	26.8%	$-11.73	-12.1%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	103	25.2%	$-17.73	-17.2%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
armidale	6	16.7%	+$2.80	+46.7%
tuncurry	7	42.9%	+$0.50	+7.1%
gunnedah	6	50.0%	+$0.43	+7.2%
ballina	7	42.9%	+$0.34	+4.9%
inverell	6	33.3%	+$0.29	+4.8%
kempsey	5	20.0%	$-1.55	-31.0%
port macquarie	20	25.0%	$-2.31	-11.5%
coffs harbour	21	23.8%	$-3.83	-18.2%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	6	50.0%	+$0.43	+7.2%
Tue	19	21.1%	$-8.96	-47.2%
Thu	7	14.3%	$-1.90	-27.1%
Fri	28	32.1%	$-0.57	-2.0%
Sat	22	13.6%	$-12.26	-55.7%
Sun	21	28.6%	+$5.53	+26.3%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 10 settled, place rate 50.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-3.22 (-32.2% ROI) on 10 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-19	armidale	Tralee	8.20	+$7.80
2026-09-26	port macquarie	Via Vegas	6.20	+$5.20
2026-09-02	coffs harbour	Jade Trees	4.40	+$4.10
2026-08-13	taree	Ordinary Angel	4.80	+$3.90
2026-07-30	port macquarie	Kharif	4.40	+$3.60

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-10	ballina	Sorrenti	1.46	$-1.00
2026-08-13	taree	Zaru	7.40	$-1.00
2026-09-02	coffs harbour	Rum And Kirk	2.92	$-1.00
2026-07-17	inverell	Snitzond	2.12	$-1.00
2026-09-26	port macquarie	Hibiki Harmony	2.52	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.