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Russell Leonard
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 24.6% trails market-implied 36.6% by -12.0pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -28.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw -41.2%.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-25.13
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-28.5%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
36.6%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 61 | $-25.13 | -41.2% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 60 | $-29.73 | -49.6% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 59 | $-32.13 | -54.5% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 56 | $-37.91 | -67.7% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 30 | 23.3% | 3.29 | $-11.18 | -37.3% |
| 2026-08 | 24 | 20.8% | 3.53 | $-13.40 | -55.8% |
| 2026-09 | 7 | 42.9% | 2.62 | $-0.55 | -7.9% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 12 | 50.0% | $-2.73 | -22.8% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 16 | 37.5% | $-1.70 | -10.6% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 27 | 7.4% | $-20.30 | -75.2% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 3 | 33.3% | +$2.60 | +86.7% |
| 8.0-15 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 27 | 33.3% | $-5.87 | -21.7% |
| Rank 2 | 21 | 19.0% | $-11.68 | -55.6% |
| Rank 3 | 9 | 11.1% | $-5.70 | -63.3% |
| Rank 4-5 | 2 | 50.0% | +$0.12 | +6.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 61 of 61 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 3 | 33.3% | +$2.60 | +86.7% |
| Outside Zone | 58 | 24.1% | $-27.73 | -47.8% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sky_racing | 61 | 24.6% | $-25.13 | -41.2% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| katherine | 7 | 28.6% | $-1.46 | -20.9% |
| mackay | 27 | 29.6% | $-6.94 | -25.7% |
| rockhampton | 27 | 18.5% | $-16.73 | -62.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Tue | 13 | 30.8% | $-6.03 | -46.4% |
| Thu | 18 | 22.2% | $-9.37 | -52.1% |
| Fri | 16 | 18.8% | $-4.14 | -25.9% |
| Sat | 14 | 28.6% | $-5.59 | -39.9% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 5 settled, place rate 60.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.23 (-24.6% ROI) on 5 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-16 | mackay | Red Hot Lizzie | 5.60 | +$4.60 |
| 2026-08-14 | katherine | The Accelator | 3.40 | +$2.40 |
| 2026-07-30 | rockhampton | Jungle Rhythm | 3.30 | +$2.30 |
| 2026-07-16 | mackay | Got Gumption | 2.96 | +$1.96 |
| 2026-09-02 | mackay | Tara I Am | 2.52 | +$1.52 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-02 | mackay | Contemporary | 2.18 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-16 | mackay | Inca Trail | 4.20 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-16 | mackay | Balkan Melody | 3.95 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-20 | rockhampton | Azuki | 8.20 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | katherine | Field Of Praise | 3.80 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.