Terrence McAuliffe

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (7 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 28.6% trails market-implied 34.3% by -5.7pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

28.6%

Avg Odds

3.54

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-1.80

ROI

-25.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

34.3%

Calibration Gap

-5.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-05	7	28.6%	3.54	$-1.80	-25.7%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
2.0-3.0	2	100.0%	+$3.20	+160.0%
3.0-5.0	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
5.0-8.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	7	28.6%	$-1.80	-25.7%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
thomas farms rc murray bridge	6	33.3%	$-0.80	-13.3%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Wed	6	33.3%	$-0.80	-13.3%
Thu	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-06	thomas farms rc murray br	Norheim	2.90	+$1.90
2026-05-06	thomas farms rc murray br	Imamanzor	2.30	+$1.30

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-06	thomas farms rc murray br	Artissi	7.50	$-1.00
2026-05-06	thomas farms rc murray br	Forever A Diamond	3.70	$-1.00
2026-05-07	warrnambool	Golden Crusader	1.60	$-1.00
2026-05-06	thomas farms rc murray br	Green Summer	3.10	$-1.00
2026-05-06	thomas farms rc murray br	Big Rita June	3.70	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.