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Terrence McAuliffe
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-07 22:17 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Small sample (6 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 33.3% vs implied 33.7% (-0.4pp). Picks track market expectations. 248% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -100.0% on 4 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -6.8% — a more honest expectation than the raw +45.0%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +70.7% (-25.7% → +45.0%) · Shrunk ROI: +7.8% (-14.6% → -6.8%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → ROI MISLEADING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$2.70
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-6.8%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
33.7%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
(insufficient data)
Recent trend
(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-10 | 6 | 33.3% | 3.61 | +$2.70 | +45.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 2 | 50.0% | +$1.70 | +85.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 2 | 50.0% | +$3.00 | +150.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 3 | 33.3% | +$0.70 | +23.3% |
| Rank 2 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 100.0% | +$4.00 | +400.0% |
Based on 6 of 6 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 2 | 50.0% | +$3.00 | +150.0% |
| Outside Zone | 4 | 25.0% | $-0.30 | -7.5% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 6 | 33.3% | +$2.70 | +45.0% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| mount gambier | 6 | 33.3% | +$2.70 | +45.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Wed | 6 | 33.3% | +$2.70 | +45.0% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-10-07 | mount gambier | Urbanise | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | mount gambier | Fiorowngood | 3.70 | +$2.70 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-10-07 | mount gambier | Min Kiata | 4.40 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | mount gambier | Magic Field | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | mount gambier | Blue Valentine | 1.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | mount gambier | Moonraker | 1.75 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-07 22:17 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.