tonyhargraves

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-05 22:02 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (19 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 57.9% beats market-implied 47.3% by +10.6pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 117% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -2.6% on 17 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -5.6% — a more honest expectation than the raw +13.9%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: — · Shrunk ROI: —

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

57.9%

Avg Odds

2.19

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$2.65

ROI

+13.9%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-5.6%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

47.3%

Calibration Gap

+10.6pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	19	+$2.65	+13.9%
Minus best 1 bet	18	+$1.07	+5.9%
Minus best 2 bets	17	$-0.45	-2.6%
Minus best 5 bets	14	$-3.53	-25.2%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-08	13	61.5%	2.26	+$3.16	+24.3%
2026-09	6	50.0%	2.06	$-0.51	-8.5%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	8	37.5%	$-2.56	-32.0%
2.0-3.0	10	80.0%	+$6.21	+62.1%
3.0-5.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	14	50.0%	+$0.08	+0.6%
Rank 2	4	100.0%	+$3.57	+89.2%
Rank 3	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 19 of 19 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	19	57.9%	+$2.65	+13.9%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
payload	19	57.9%	+$2.65	+13.9%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Fri	1	100.0%	+$0.62	+62.0%
Sat	10	70.0%	+$3.97	+39.7%
Sun	6	50.0%	+$0.06	+1.0%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-28	Sunderland	2.58	+$1.58
2026-08-21	Brentford	2.52	+$1.52
2026-08-21	Over	2.08	+$1.08
2026-08-28	Under	2.04	+$1.04
2026-08-21	Under	1.96	+$0.96

Biggest losses

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-05	Brighton	2.00	$-1.00
2026-09-18	Liverpool	2.30	$-1.00
2026-08-21	Over	1.75	$-1.00
2026-08-28	Over	1.90	$-1.00
2026-08-21	Fulham	4.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-05 22:02 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.